Dynamic Assessment Of Comprehensive Risk Of Peanut Waterlogging Disaster In Huang-Huai-Hai Region

In recent years,global warming has caused frequent waterlogging disasters,hindered the normal growth and development of crops,and further affected the sustainable development and food security of China’s grain industry.Peanut(Arachis hypogaea L.)has a wide range of uses,which can be used for food,oil and export to earn foreign exchange.It is one of the leading factors to promote the sustainable development of agriculture in China.Frequent waterlogging disasters make the roots of spring peanuts in a state of waterlogging and hypoxia for a long time,which finally seriously affects the yield of spring flowers.Therefore,it is very necessary to study the risk assessment of peanut waterlogging disasters.Based on the four-factor theory of disaster formation,the comprehensive risk of peanut waterlogging disaster in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 1990 to 2020 was dynamically evaluated and divided.In the aspect of risk assessment,the comprehensive waterlogging index(CWI)was established by using water loss index(CWSDI),vegetation status index(VCI)and soil moisture condition index(SMCI)to assess the risk.In the aspect of vulnerability assessment,the effects of water stress on key physiological indexes in different growth stages of spring peanut were studied through water stress experiments,and the natural vulnerability curve of waterlogging disaster was evaluated.In the aspect of exposure assessment,planting area ratio and comprehensive climate suitability are selected as evaluation indexes.In the evaluation of disaster prevention and mitigation capacity,the corresponding indicators are selected from two aspects: agricultural production and socio-economic conditions.Finally,the corresponding control countermeasures are put forward for different risk areas.The main research results of this paper are as follows(1)The CWI index can be used to identify waterlogging events.The waterlogging hazard of spring peanut in the three growth stages showed an increasing trend from north to south,and the high value area mainly concentrated in the south of Huang-Huai-Hai region.(2)Waterlogging in the early and middle growth stages of spring peanut has a great influence on the loss rate of plant height,and the leaf area index is obviously affected by water stress in the middle growth stage.In the late growth stage,excessive flooding caused a significant reduction in peanut yield,but moderate flooding could increase peanut yield.The vulnerability in the northwest of the study area is obviously lower than that in other areas.(3)The extremely exposed areas are mainly concentrated in northern Henan and part of Hebei Province,the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of more than half of the areas in the study area is at a medium or high level,and the disaster prevention capacity of most areas is good.(4)According to the results of comprehensive risk dynamic assessment,with the development of the growth period,the area of low-risk areas decreased,and the high-and medium-risk areas expanded.By the end of the growth period,the low-risk areas were scattered in the northwest corner of the study area,while the high-and very high-risk areas expanded,mainly concentrated in the south of the study area.This study will provide scientific basis and technical support for better exploring the growth law of peanut under waterlogging stress,comprehensively preventing and reducing the risk of peanut waterlogging disaster,and the research results will provide an important basis for the local government to optimize the management of peanut industry and ensure sustainable development,and farmers to choose reasonable irrigation and drainage facilities.This study will provide scientific basis and technical support for better exploring the growth law of peanut under waterlogging stress and comprehensively preventing and reducing the risk of peanut waterlogging disaster.The research results will provide important basis for the local government to optimize the management of peanut industry and ensure sustainable development,and farmers to choose reasonable irrigation and drainage facilities.