| In recent years,Chinese climate models have entered a stage of rapid development.Compared with the CMIP3 and CMIP5,the number of Chinese models in the CMIP6 has greatly increased,and they have participated in the simulation of many important climate conditions.Under the background of global warming,the Arctic sea ice is melting rapidly,and the Arctic warming is accelerating.Arctic warming and its connection with mid-latitude extreme weather and climate have become a hot spot in the community of international climate change research.Based on observation and reanalysis data,CMIP6 multi-model historical simulation and future prediction experiments,this paper evaluates and compares the simulation capabilities of CMIP6 models in domestic and foreign for Arctic warming in winter,and the connection between Arctic warming and Eurasian winter climate,and analyzes the Estimated results of changes in winter Arctic climate,Arctic warming,and Eurasian winter climate under different future emission scenarios.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）Domestic and foreign models are comparable in simulating the climate state of the Arctic winter temperature field and circulation field,and have well reproduced the significant warming trend of the Arctic winter surface and the mid-troposphere in recent decades,but the multi-model ensemble mean（MME）neither can reproduce the significant positive trend in the atmospheric circulation well.In addition,foreign models are superior to domestic models in simulating the climatology and trendency of Arctic winter sea ice concentration.（2）Compared with foreign models,domestic models can better simulate the close relationship between Arctic warming and Eurasian winter climate.Arctic mid-tropospheric warming is more correlated with changes in the Eurasian mid-latitude circulation than Arctic surface warming.In addition,the direct response of mid-latitude atmospheric circulation simulated by domestic models to the reduction of Arctic winter sea ice concentration is weaker than that of foreign models.（3）Under high/low emission scenarios,domestic and foreign models have good consistency in simulating future winter surface temperature changes in the Arctic.In simulating changes in Arctic winter sea ice concentration in the future,the domestic model shows that its decreasing trend is lower than that of foreign models.In addition,in the high emission scenario,domestic and foreign models both show that the entire Arctic is in a state of rapid warming and significant sea ice reduction by the end of the 21st century,and the spatial distribution of domestic and foreign models is similar.The significant warming of the Arctic in the future will be affected by the maximum greenhouse forcing,and the warming of the middle troposphere of the Arctic will be more closely related to the future winter climate changes in Eurasia.By the middle and late 21th,the correlation between the change of mid-latitude circulation and Arctic warming simulated by domestic models is higher than that of foreign models,but it cannot explain that the future response of mid-latitude net circulation is completely or even mainly determined by Arctic warming. |
