Research On The Formation And Measurement Of Public Inflation Expectation In China

Inflation expectation refers to the prediction and estimation of the future trend and degree of inflation made by the economic subject,and the economic subject will adjust its economic behavior according to this judgment.Inflation expectation plays an important role in reflecting the economic operation of a country or region,and the stability of inflation expectation is very important to the smooth operation of macro-economy.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the formation process of inflation expectation and predict inflation expectation in advance for the designation of macroeconomic policies.In view of this,this paper studies the existing literature on inflation expectation,and comes to the conclusion that there are some problems in the existing research,such as insufficient treatment of data correlation and loss of data information,so as to think about and propose a new method to measure inflation expectation.This paper combs and compares the formation mechanism theory of inflation expectation,then introduces the adaptive learning theory introducing learning behavior,obtains that there are certain learning behaviors in the formation process of inflation expectation,and then studies several common measurement methods and influencing factors of inflation expectation,It lays a foundation for the selection of model methods and data indicators in this paper.In the empirical research part,according to the theoretical analysis of the above part,12 economic variables including consumer price index,generalized money supply,exchange rate and rate of return are selected,the characteristics of the data are extracted by automatic encoder method,and the inflation expectation is predicted by MIDAS,Through comparison,it is concluded that the method used in this paper can measure inflation expectation more accurately.Through empirical research,this paper comes to the conclusion that the public mainly formed their future inflation expectations based on the information of macroeconomic variables in the past nearly two years,and the influence time of different economic variables on inflation expectations is different,and the inflation expectation level in three to four quarters of the historical period will have an important impact on the formation of future inflation expectations,Therefore,it is necessary to distinguish the impact of different economic factors on inflation expectations,control the current inflation level,further improve the market price mechanism and form a reasonable price range,which provides a reference for the guidance and management of public inflation expectations in China.