The Influence Of Housing Debt On The Demand Of Family Commercial Insurance

According to the statistics of the People’s Bank of China,the housing debt has become the biggest debt item in the proportion of household debt in our country.After reaching the peak in 2019,the growth rate of housing sales price in our country began to slow down,and the balance of personal housing loans also entered a slow or even stagnant stage after years of high-speed growth.But our country commercial insurance premium income after 2019 the growth speed reduces greatly,even appears the negative growth phenomenon.There is a big gap between the insurance depth and the insurance density of our country and the world average level,in order to promote the demand for family business insurance to open new ideas.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper uses Probit and Tobit model to empirically analyze the CHFS data in 2019 and explore the impact of housing debt on household business insurance demand,the family business insurance demand is divided into the family business insurance purchase and the family business insurance premium expense.In this paper,the results of benchmark regression pass the robustness test and are discussed endogenously.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)To a certain extent,housing debt has a significant positive impact on household business insurance demand.At the level of 1%,housing debt significantly increased the probability of household purchasing commercial insurance and increased the premium expenditure of commercial insurance,with marginal effects of 0.22% and 2.34%,respectively.Further study found that the mechanism of the impact is: housing debt through the housing value of the “Wealth effect” and“Mortgage effect” to promote household business insurance needs,its promoting effect exceeds the “Liability attribute” of housing debt itself to restrain the demand for commercial insurance.The “Liability attribute” of housing debt can restrain the demand of commercial insurance mainly by improving the liquidity constraint and the level of precautionary saving.The “Wealth effect” and “Mortgage effect” caused by the debt-financed house purchase have improved the family’s ability to participate in commercial insurance,and the specific housing risk caused by the behavior of debt-buying will further generate the motivation of commercial insurance demand,the combination of the two enhanced the effective commercial insurance demand of households.(2)When the household has excessive housing debt,the probability of purchasing commercial insurance and the expenditure of commercial insurance premium will be significantly reduced at the level of 1%,and the marginal effect is-9.33% and-91.84% respectively.(3)The impact of housing debt on household business insurance demand has obvious heterogeneity,that is,the effect will be different with different age,income,occupation,region and commercial insurance category.The housing debt has a significant positive effect on the demand of family business insurance in the people over 35 years old,but has no significant effect in the people under 35 years old.The positive effect of housing debt on the business demand of low-income group is more obvious than that of middle-and high-income group.Occupational non-government,public institutions and state-owned enterprises employees affected by the housing debt of the population increased the probability of household business insurance demand is higher.The impact of housing debt on household business insurance demand is more obvious in the western and eastern regions.The housing debt can promote the demand of security commercial insurance and investment commercial insurance in different degree,and the influence of security commercial insurance is stronger than that of investment commercial insurance.The main contributions of this paper are:(1)perspective innovation.The choice of housing liabilities and household business insurance needs as the research object expands the field of real estate finance and business insurance research.(2)multiple levels of research.This paper identifies the impact of housing liability as “Pure”liability on household business insurance demand and its mechanism.At the same time,the paper studies the mechanism of housing debt affecting the demand of commercial insurance through housing value path.In the theoretical analysis,the impact of housing debt on commercial insurance demand is divided into two aspects:demand capacity and demand motivation.There is also an analysis of excessive housing debt in the benchmark regression.