The Impact Of Bank Credit On Real Estate Prices In China

The party’s 20 th Party Congress report stated that real estate should be developed in the direction of“Promoting people’s well-being and improving people’s quality of life”,In other words,“It always sticks the position that houses are for living,not for making money”,the report of the party’s 20 th Congress once again puts the housing issue in the spotlight.Since the housing reform in 1998,the real estate industry is booming.Rigid demand,the lack of investment channels and speculation,and so on,driving real estate prices continue to rise.From 2002 to 2020,the average price of commercial housing in our country has rose more than threefold,while the growth rate of long-term loan balance of housing in our country has been fluctuating at about 20% during the same period,Among them,housing mortgage and real estate development loans to expand the scale of the most significant.Is there a link between the expansion of bank lending and rising house prices in China? Hence,it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between them for the healthy development of banking and real estate industry.On this basis,the paper reviews the existing study,and then reviews the current situation of our real estate market and bank credit,and makes a theoretical and empirical analysis of their interaction.This section consists of 2 sections,one is to conduct Meta-analysis on the existing research,the other is to use PVAR model to further analyze the relationship between the 35 large and medium-sized cities,and to establish a panel regression model,and the public service level is added as a variable to study the role of this variable in the system of bank credit and real estate price.In the Meta-analysis,31 articles were selected from the published literature,and 206 estimates of the effect of bank credit on real estate prices were obtained.Using the theory and method of Meta-analysis,we get:(1)there is publication bias in the study of the impact of bank credit on real estate price.(2)the actual effect of bank credit on the value of real estate is positive,and the partial correlation coefficient is between 0.411.0.941.(3)the results of heterogeneity study show that the number of samples,time span and the number of explanatory variables in the set model all have some influence on the results.Through building PVAR model,we can draw the following conclusions:(1)the current real estate price is affected by the lag of one phase and two phases.Real Estate Bank credit has a positive impact on housing prices,real estate development loans delayed for a short period of time will have a negative impact on housing prices,and delayed for the second period will have a positive impact.Personal mortgage loans also have a positive impulse on housing prices.(2)the house price and the credit of the real estate bank are mutually causal,the real estate development loan and the house price are also mutually causal,and the personal mortgage loan and the house price show a one-way relationship between the former and the latter.(3)the panel data regression model shows that the public service level has a positive effect on the house price,and the effect is remarkable.Based on the above analysis,the following recommendations: Regulate Bank credit,more controls on the flow of bank loans into the property market.Enhance the supervision and the management of the real estate market,crack down on developers’ land hoarding,land occupation,land speculation.Appropriate increase in the market and housing similar to the housing input,in order to ease the tight market for products,control the rise in house prices.