Research On The Influencing Factors And Survivability Of The International LNG Trade Network

With the optimization and adjustment of the energy structure,natural gas is more favored as an alternative to traditional fossil energy.Global LNG trade continued its upward trend in2020,reaching 356.1×10~6tons,despite the raging global pandemic of COVID-19,which has had an impact on global energy demand and supply.In the"14th Five-Year Plan",in order to achieve the goal of"carbon neutrality"as soon as possible,as well as the implementation of the new infrastructure strategy and the promotion of the dual-cycle strategy,China’s clean energy import business has been further promoted and developed.The turbulent global situation has continuously impacted the global natural gas supply,causing interruption and shortage of natural gas supply.Therefore,it is of great value and significance to study the influencing factors and survivability of the international LNG trade network.First of all,this thesis uses the LNG trade data in the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database and uses complex network methods to establish an international LNG trade network with countries as nodes and LNG trade relations between countries as edges.Structural features are analyzed.Secondly,based on the QAP regression analysis method of social network analysis,eight indicators are selected to analyze the impact on the international LNG trade network.Finally,different centrality indexes in the network are selected,and the entropy method is used to identify the important node countries in the network.Combined with dynamic simulation,the trade network is attacked,and the invulnerability changes of the trade network are analyzed.The research results show that:(1)The international LNG trade network shows the characteristics of a scale-free network,and has a certain degree of heterogeneity.The distribution of node degree and intensity conforms to the power-law distribution.The current trade network is not closely connected,the interconnectivity is poor,and the overall participation The degree is not high.(2)Economic scale,border proximity,and trade agreements have a significant positive impact on the formation of trade relations,while country distance and political risk have a significant negative impact.Population size,natural gas production scale,and trade agreements have a positive impact on trade volume,while political risk has a negative impact.(3)Under random attacks,the international LNG trade network shows a certain degree of invulnerability.Under deliberate attacks,the network is easily collapsed.The core node countries in the trade network are identified through the analysis of invulnerability.Finally,based on the white paper"China’s Energy Development in the New Era"issued by the State Council and the analysis results of the international LNG trade market,suggestions and enlightenments for the long-term development of my country’s LNG are put forward.This thesis takes the international LNG trade as the research object,establishes a network model through the complex network method,analyzes the change and development of the international LNG trade network structure,and analyzes the influencing factors of the trade network through the QAP network analysis method,and from a global perspective.Analyzing the survivability of trade networks provides a new theoretical perspective for the study of international LNG trade.