Research On The Impact Of Climate Change On The Adaptive Regulation Of Luanhe River Water Resources

Global climate change affects hydrological cycle processes such as runoff and evaporation,increases the uncertainty of hydrological risks.In order to cope with the hydrological risks brought about by climate change,the research on the impact of climate change on the adaptive dispatch of water resources has become one of the hot topics of current research.This paper studies the control basin of Panjiakou Reservoir in Luanhe River Basin,establishes the SWAT model,uses GCM data to establishes the SDSM model and predicts precipitation and temperature in future climate scenarios.Then this paper drives the SWAT model to obtain the monthly runoff of Panjiakou Reservoir,analyzes the impact of runoff change and climate change on the dispatch of water supply in Panjiakou Reservoir,and provides basic theoretical support for the dispatch of water resources in the Luan River Basin under climate change.The main research work and results are as follows:（1）Based on the measured data from the meteorological and hydrological stations from 1996 to 2012,the HWSD（World Soil Database）data of the World Soil Database and the land use type data in 2005,this paper established the SWAT model of the Panjiakou Reservoir controlled watershed,then uses the SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP model to verify the calibration and analyze the sensitivity of the parameters.It is found that the R² of each hydrological station during the calibration and verification period is higher than 0.61,and the E_ns is higher than 0.53,so the model has good applicability.（2）This paper uses SDSM model to identify the relationship between large-scale climate factors and forecasts,determine forecast factors,and establish statistical downscaling models.The R² of the daily temperature is greater than 0.90,and the R² of the monthly average rainfall is generally between 0.50-0.72,so the model has good applicability.The output data of the Can ESM2 climate model under the framework of CMIP5（the fifth stage of the coupled model comparison plan）is selected to drive the downscaling model.It is found that the daily temperature increase in the low-emission mode（RCP2.6）and the high-emission mode（RCP8.5）scenarios from 2026 to 2050 is between 2.0-2.6°C,and the annual precipitation increase rate is 1.4mm/year and2.6mm/year.（3）This paper uses the precipitation and temperature data output by the SDSM model to drive the SWAT model,simulates the monthly runoff process of Panjiakou Reservoir from 2028 to 2050 under two future climate scenarios,analyzes the runoff changes under future climate scenario.It was found that the monthly average runoff under the RCP2.6 scenario increased by about 17m³/s,and the monthly average runoff under the RCP8.5 scenario increased by about 24m³/s.（4）This paper uses the long-sequence diachronic method to calculate the water supply capacity of Panjiakou Reservoir under future climate scenarios.It was found that the annual average of the water provided by Panjiakou Reservoir under the same conditions in the two future climate scenarios increased by approximately 550 million m³/year and 640 million m³/year.The standard dispatch strategy is used for reservoir dispatch,and the water supply risk in the base period and future climate scenarios are compared.Under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5,the reliability and resilience increase,and vulnerability reduces.This means that climate change has had a positive impact on the water supply of the Panjiakou Reservoir.