Research On Reliability Evaluation Method For Complex Repairable Systems Under Common Cause Failure

At present,military equipment systems are becoming increasingly complex,and their combat mission profiles are becoming increasingly diverse.Task reliability is one of the key indicators of such complex systems.The complexity of reliability evaluation for such complex engineering systems is mainly reflected in two aspects: one of reasons is that there is maintenance behavior for faulty units during the system task cycle,and the working and repairable time periods of each unit are different under different task profiles;another reason is that the redundant design adopted to improve the task reliability of the system can lead to common cause failures of the units.These two influencing factors greatly increase the complexity of reliability evaluation.Traditional reliability analysis methods often overlook the influence of these factors,resulting in remarkable errors in the analysis results,and there is currently no comprehensive theory for reliability evaluation considering these factors comprehensively.Therefore,based on the above engineering background,this article conducts research on the reliability evaluation methods of repairable systems under common cause failures in the following aspects:(1)Conduct research on the current research status of reliability analysis methods for repairable systems under common cause failures both domestically and internationally,summarize the current theoretical progress and shortcomings in this field,clarify the limitations of traditional methods,and establish the main research ideas and technical roadmap of the paper on this basis.(2)A common cause failure probability assessment method considering degradation and maintenance effects is proposed for complex engineering systems with common cause failures and maintenance behaviors,clarifying the coupling relationship between maintenance and common cause failures in complex systems.Based on the actual engineering background,exploring new methods combined with simulation methods for system reliability evaluation compensates for the shortcomings and limitations of traditional analytical methods for reliability evaluation of such complex engineering systems.(3)Combining Monte Carlo simulation,conduct dynamic reliability evaluation of repairable systems under common cause failures.We designed a reliability simulation evaluation algorithm for repairable systems under common cause failures,wrote a simulation program,and verified the applicability and accuracy of the program algorithm through system examples.This has certain guiding significance for the engineering practice of such systems.(4)A reliability simulation evaluation software for repairable systems under common cause failure has been developed based on simulation algorithms.A graphical user interface for the program algorithm has been constructed,and the software usage methods have been provided.Taking the aviation support system as an example,reliability simulation evaluation research was conducted under typical mission profiles of the system,providing a certain technical reference for the design and support of the aviation support system,and verifying that the new method and developed software platform proposed in this article have good engineering application value.