A Trend Study On Cervical Cancer Mortality In China Based On Bayesian APC Model

Cervical cancer is a common malignant tumor among women.With the rapid development of economy,society,industrialization and urbanization in China,the living environment and lifestyle of residents have changed rapidly,leading to an increasing trend and younger age of cervical cancer mortality.To explore the changing trend and influencing factors of cervical cancer mortality among Chinese women,and to provide data support for relevant departments to formulate effective prevention and control measures.This study targeted Chinese women aged 20-79 years,and collected cervical cancer mortality data from 1990 to 2019.Corresponding statistical models were used for analysis and prediction:joinpoint regression model was used to describe the local changing trend of cervical cancer mortality;age-periodcohort model was used to analyze the influencing factors of cervical cancer mortality risk;Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trend changes of standardized mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate of cervical cancer in the next ten years.The results of this study showed that:the standardized mortality rate showed a downward overall trend from 1990 to 2019,with annual percentage changes of-2.88%,4.44%,-0.13%and-2.88%respectively from 1990 to 1998,1998 to 2004,2004 to 2009 and 2017 to 2019;the cervical cancer mortality rates of all age groups showed a downward trend,with the most obvious decline in the 20-24 age group.The age-period-cohort model analysis showed that age effect,period effect and cohort effect all had some influence on cervical cancer mortality risk,among which age effect had the greatest influence.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the standardized mortality rate of cervical cancer among Chinese women would decrease significantly in the next ten years.By 2029,there would be only 4.27 cases per 100,000 people,a decrease of 41.67%compared with 2019.In the prediction of age-specific mortality rate,only the 45-49 age group had a 1%increase in mortality rate compared with 2019,while the cervical cancer mortality rates of other age groups decreased to varying degrees,with significant decreases in the 30-34,35-39,40-44 and 74-79 age groups,which decreased by 15%,18%,14%and 12%respectively;by 2029,the female mortality rates of twelve age groups would all decrease by more than 25%compared with 2019,among which the mortality rates of the 35-39 and 40-44 age groups had the largest decline,decreasing by 54%and 53%respectively compared with 2019.