| With the rapid development of the global economy,the trend of global climate warming has become increasingly evident,leading to changes in the laws of climate change worldwide and having a profound impact on the hydrological cycle of river basins.The Huma River Basin is located in the Greater Xing’an Mountains region and is a primary tributary of the upper reaches of Heilongjiang.The changes in runoff in this basin have a significant impact on the main stream of Heilongjiang.The runoff supply in the basin is mainly precipitation,supplemented by ice and snow melting water.The distributed hydrological SWAT model was used to simulate the runoff changes in the watershed.However,due to factors such as the vast and sparsely populated Northeast region,the significant temperature difference between day and night,and the relatively backward technical conditions,the surface meteorological stations in the region are relatively sparse,making it difficult to represent the distribution of precipitation and temperature throughout the entire watershed.The lack of meteorological data seriously restricts the simulation accuracy of hydrological models.Therefore,there is an urgent need to carry out runoff simulation research in the Huma River Basin under climate change conditions,which can provide a theoretical basis for the rational development and utilization of water resources.This article constructs a SWAT model suitable for the Huma River Basin by collecting DEM elevation data,land use data,soil data,and runoff data.Traditional precipitation data and CMADS data are used as meteorological data to drive the SWAT model,verifying the applicability of CMADS data in the Huma River Basin.The climate scenario method is used to set different possible climate change scenarios to study the impact of climate change on runoff.The main research work and results of this article are as follows:1.Based on meteorological data from 2013 to 2018,construct a SWAT model for the Huma River Basin,select 22 parameters that have a significant impact on simulated runoff,and use SWAT-CUP software for sensitivity analysis to screen out 12 more sensitive parameters for calibration;Verify the applicability of the model on a regular basis and during the validation period in the Huma River Basin.The simulation results show that the SWAT model has high accuracy in runoff simulation,with R2 and ENS of 0.78,0.74,and 0.75,0.65,respectively,during the validation period and validation period,making it suitable for runoff simulation in the Huma River Basin.2.The correlation coefficient between traditional meteorological precipitation data and CMADS precipitation data is 0.88.The distribution trend of precipitation within the year is the same,and the spatial distribution of annual average precipitation is similar.However,in the westernmost region,the precipitation of CMADS data is slightly lower,resulting in a slightly lower overall precipitation of CMADS compared to traditional meteorological data.The R~2 and NSE of traditional meteorological data rates during the regular and validation periods are 0.90,0.87,and 0.85,0.66,respectively.The R~2 and NSE of CMADS data rates during the regular and validation periods are 0.81,0.78,and0.74,0.73,respectively.Traditional meteorological data is slightly better than CMADS data,but both simulation results meet the research needs.CMADS data can provide reliable data support for runoff simulation research in areas with limited data.3.The climate scenario method was used to study the impact of climate change on the runoff of the Huma River Basin.By using the weather generator in the SWAT model to set the amplitude of precipitation and temperature changes,24 different climate scenario combinations were constructed.The simulation results showed that the impact of precipitation on the runoff of the Huma River Basin was much greater than that of temperature;The change in precipitation is directly proportional to the change in runoff,The temperature change is inversely proportional to the change in runoff rate. |
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