A Research Of The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Systemic Financial Risk

The frequency of crisis events and the significant increase in macroeconomic uncertainty over the century have become important drivers of systemic financial risk contagion.This paper explores the impact of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk based on data from 45 Chinese listed financial institutions from January 2015 to March 2020.First,the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and systemic financial risk is analyzed using signaling theory and behavioral finance theory.Then,by measuring the systemic financial risk index,we use the dynamic panel model GMM to study the long-term impact effects of economic policy uncertainty and systemic financial risk;finally,by constructing a network opinion index,we use the TVP-SV-VAR model to explore the time-varying relationships among economic policy uncertainty,network opinion and systemic financial risk.It is found that(1)in general,economic policy uncertainty has a significant impact on systemic financial risk,and the higher the uncertainty,the greater the systemic financial risk.(2)In terms of the external economic environment,the impact of economic policy uncertainty is significant during periods of economic downturn and high policy volatility.(3)Economic policy uncertainty can influence systemic financial risk through online public opinion.Accordingly,this paper makes the following recommendations:(1)Strengthen the pop ularization and publicity of new economic policies,maintain the continuity and stability o f economic policy implementation,and reduce the negative impact of economic policy uncert ainty on systemic financial risk.(2)Financial institutions should establish risk prevention mec hanisms,improve risk management,and pay more attention to preventing and safeguarding ag ainst the impact of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk during periods of high economic policy volatility and economic downturn.(3)Increase the education and inve stment of investors and improve the professionalism of investors.(4)Strengthen the super vision of network public opinion to prevent economic policy uncertainty from affecting sys temic financial risks through network public opinion.