Grey Multivariable Model With Adjacent Accumulation And Its Application

In recent years,the massive wastewater discharge has brought enormous pressure to water environment governance.Especially in the eastern region with rapid industrial development and large population,the problem of wastewater discharge is particularly serious.It has influenced people’s life.Therefore,the problem of wastewater discharge has aroused great concern.Predicting wastewater discharge becomes a critical step in addressing this issue.However,industrial and urban domestic wastewater account for the largest proportion in the total wastewater discharge,so it is very vital to accurately predict the discharge of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage.The forecast results can provide a reasonable basis for the management,control and governance of wastewater discharge.Because of the huge discrepancies before and after wastewater treatment,less available data,and wastewater discharge will be affected by many factors,the grey multivariate model has become the preferred model for the prediction of this "less data" problem.Firstly,based on the new information priority principle,the limitation of the grey multivariable model with traditional accumulation and adjacent fractional accumulation is proved.Then,the adjacent accumulation generator is introduced into the grey multivariate convolution model to settle the above matters,and the grey multivariate convolution model with adjacent accumulation is proposed.The perturbation,validity of initial values,modeling conditions and reduction errors of the model are analyzed.It can be seen that it not only conforms to the principle of new information priority,but also immensely enhances the accuracy and stability.At the same time,four cases are listed to further verify the superiority of the model in terms of accuracy and stability.Finally,the relevant factors of industrial wastewater and urban domestic sewage discharge are screened out by grey relational analysis,and the industrial wastewater and urban sewage discharge in five provinces in eastern China are predicted.The predictive results reflect the changing trend of industrial wastewater and urban domestic sewage discharge.It can offer academic support for the management of wastewater discharge.