Corrosion Failure Prediction And Consequence Evaluation Of Submarine Pipelines

In recent years,with the improvement of China’s sea pipeline construction capacity and the increase in demand for oil and gas resources,the construction scope of submarine pipelines has become wider and wider.Compared with land pipelines,the submarine pipeline is facing a more severe natural environment,which further increases the risk of corrosion of the pipeline.Once the corrosion failure of the submarine pipeline occurs,it will bring serious consequences such as casualties,pollution of the marine ecology,loss of economy and reputation.Therefore,accurately grasping the development trend of submarine pipeline corrosion and the severity of the consequences of corrosion failure have very important theoretical and practical significance for reducing the occurrence of subsea pipeline corrosion failure accidents,protecting personnel safety and the marine ecological environment.In the following,there have three parts research content of this article: the first part,explore the UGM(1,1)subsea pipeline corrosion prediction optimization model with better prediction effect.This section discusses the modeling principles and steps of the UGM(1,1)subsea pipeline corrosion prediction model with four different initial conditions in the first,and in view of the shortcomings of the existing initial condition construction method,the UGM(1,1)(SUGM(1,1,τ))subsea pipeline corrosion prediction of the initial condition slip model is established under the metabolic thought and the principle of new information priority.This method further improves the prediction accuracy of the model,and lays a foundation for the following research on corrosion failure of submarine pipelines.The second part,this paper conduct prediction research on the key points of subsea pipeline corrosion failure based on the research in the first part.The modeling idea of the SUGM(1,1,τ)-ARIMA optimal combination model for predicting the pitting depth of submarine pipelines is proposed,then on the basis of building a single prediction model,the combination model and the optimal combination model is determined through the weighting criteria and evaluation index functions,according to the optimal combination model,the predicted value of the pitting depth of the pipeline is obtained to clarify the key points of pipeline corrosion failure.Based on the corrosion failure of submarine pipelines,the third part establishes an evaluation index system for the failure consequences,and uses the three-scale fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and variable fuzzy set theory to realize the weight calculation of the evaluation index system and the evaluation of failure consequences,finally,the severity of the accident is obtained.The research results show that the SUGM(1,1,τ)-ARIMA subsea pipeline optimal combination prediction model constructed in this paper accurately predicts the key location of corrosion failure.The key failure location were determined and the results of the study on the assessment of the consequences of failure were obtained,which can provide scientific guidance for the key locations of submarine pipeline corrosion protection work and failure early warning decision-making.