Analysis Of User Behavior In Ethereum ERC721 Token Game

Since the emergence of the first phenomenal blockchain game ”Crypto Kitties” in 2017,the blockchain game industry ushered in vigorous development.Blockchain games usually issue non-fungible tokens(NFT)as virtual props.The creation and trading of props are the core of game.However,due to the immature design scheme,the user experience of existing blockchain games is usually poor.At the same time,the price of virtual props lacks a benchmark,which leads to speculation in the game.These problems are not conducive to the sustainable development of the blockchain game industry.In response to the above problems,this thesis takes the ERC721 token game issued on Ethereum as the research object,and obtains their data from Ethereum blockchain.Firstly,this thesis explores the user behavior in Crypto Kitties and analyzes the factors that affect these user behavior.Then,this thesis analyzes the price and resale income of props in Crypto Kitties from the perspective of user behavior.Finally,the commonality of user behavior is obtained through the comparative analysis of multiple ERC721 token games.In Crypto Kitties,user activities are mainly carried out by means of transferring props.By using the transfer records of props in Crypto Kitties,this thesis build a network and analyze changes in network parameters over time.It is found that a large number of players exited the game shortly after the explosive growth of the number of game players.A few big players gradually dominated the game.Through further analysis,it is discovered that a special prop sold at an extremely high price formed a hot spot of public opinion and caused a large number of players to enter the game.Reasons for a large number of players to withdraw from the game include the oversupply of props,the decreasing of player income,the widening gap between rich and poor players,and the limitations of the Ethereum platform.Trading is the core of Crypto Kitties.In order to explore the determinants of the price of props in Crypto Kitties,this thesis predict the change of market condition and the price of individual prop respectively.The result of the first experiment shows that the actual number of active players in the game and the cost of playing the game have a potential predictive effect on the change of market condition.The result of the second experiment indicates that the price of individual prop are mainly determined by the market condition and the characteristics that can clearly reflect prop's rarity.On this basis,in order to reveal the speculative activities in Crypto Kitties,the prop resale records is analyzed.It is found that the resale activities of most users end up with losses,but the absolute amount of their losses is relatively small? some smart players could maintain a high resale earning ratio under the condition of participating in many resale activities.Further prediction on the income of prop resale shows that the resale income is greatly affected by market conditions? the resale of certain types of props has a greater probability of earning? the time interval of resale has an inverse relationship with the probability of earning.The comparative analysis of multiple NFT game shows that the overall activeness of users in blockchain games is generally low? it is common for a small number of sellers to control the market and obtain most of the game revenue? the gap between the rich and poor buyers is large.Since then,this thesis propose methods for estimating user income and retention rate in NFT games,and revealed the impact of game income on users by analyzing the relationship between user income and retention rate.The above research can not only help the audience of blockchain games understand the rules and operating ecology of blockchain games,but also help game developers find the shortcomings in game design.It is also of great significance for the further development of the blockchain game industry and the entire decentralized application ecology.