Evaluation Of Semiconductor Enterprise Value Based On Schwartz-Moon Model

Under the influence of COVID-19,data center,cloud computing,online home office and other "home economics" have greatly increased the demand for domestic semiconductors,and under the stimulation of domestic substitution,the mainland's semiconductor manufacturing industry has stepped into a pro cyclical development cycle.Under the support of the policy,the domestic semiconductor industry keeps up with the trend of the times,taking advantage of the policy,constantly catching up with foreign advanced technology,and striving to stabilize China's market share in the post Moore's law era.With the increasing frequency of transactions such as intellectual property rights,restructuring and mergers and acquisitions,the importance of the semiconductor industry has become increasingly prominent.The market needs more suitable valuation methods for semiconductor enterprises,but domestic semiconductor valuation methods are still focused on EVA,DCF and other traditional valuation methods,which have some limitations in the application of semiconductor industry valuation.Therefore,combined with the characteristics of the semiconductor industry,this paper uses Schwartz moon model to carry out the research on the value evaluation of semiconductor enterprises,and tests the results in different ways,so as to provide reference for enterprise managers and market investors.This paper first introduces the industry characteristics of China's semiconductor industry and the traditional evaluation methods.Due to the characteristics of the semiconductor industry,the industry periodicity and political geography and other problems,it brings uncertainty to the development of the domestic semiconductor industry.However,the traditional evaluation methods can't take these uncertainties into account.Through the comparative analysis of different evaluation methods,it is found that the Schwartz moon pricing model based on Monte Carlo simulation is suitable for the evaluation of enterprises with high uncertainty.Then,the Schwartz moon pricing model is constructed.Aiming at the industry periodicity,the exit multiple method is introduced.Considering the industry characteristics,EV / income is selected as the value ratio to further improve the applicability of the model.Finally,the representative enterprises in the semiconductor industry are selected as the cases,and the financial data of 10 representative mature enterprises in the industry are selected to calculate some parameters.The financial data are obtained through wind database,sina finance,tonghuashun,cninfo,etc.for parameter calculation,and the enterprise value is obtained by running the model.The conclusion is drawn after comparative analysis.After the model application and verification analysis of Yangjie technology,the author thinks that Schwartz moon model is suitable for evaluating the enterprise value of Yangjie technology,pointing out the future development direction for semiconductor enterprise value evaluation,and providing a more reasonable market reference price for related investment activities.However,there are still some problems in this method.Some parameters in the model are subjective and have some limitations,which need to be studied and improved.