Research On Management Of Mutual Annuity Risk Based On Chinese Data

In recent years,the longevity risks brought by the aging population have caused a certain risk impact on the pension and medical security system,and due to the lack of population mortality data in China,accurate assessment and management of longevity risks has become a hotspot of concern in the field of actuarial and insurance.Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the 2021 government work report: we need to promote the national co-ordination of endowment insurance,and standardize the development of the "third pillar" endowment insurance,that is,increase the participation of personal savings and commercial endowment insurance,so as to alleviate the longevity risk pressure of entering a moderately aging society of China.Under this background,the development of voluntary,low-threshold,and highly transparent mutual insurance is undoubtedly a positive response to the country’s "14th Five-Year Plan".As a country with a large population in the world,China has a huge gap in the supply and demand of pension annuity products.People are keenly interested in a new type of mutual aid plan with low management fees and high returns,which has brought a great market for the commercialization of mutual insurance.Based on the mortality data that from 1995 to 2017 in the "China Statistical Yearbook" issued by the National Bureau of Statistics,this thesis conducts an in-depth study of the applicability and risk level of the GSA plan.The main contents are as follows:(1)The characteristics of dynamic and static changes in the mortality rate of China’s full-age population data are analyzed and the mortality rate is modeled.This thesis compare the fit of the six models of APC and CBD to the mortality data of China,and use APC model to measure the longevity risks under different life tables.The results show that the APC model is the most suitable classic mortality model for China’s data.The dynamic changes of the mortality rate will lead to deviations in the pricing of annuity products and increase the underwriting risk of pension management institutions.(2)The operating status of GSA plan is simulated under multi-group and dynamic annuity pools,and the theoretical system of GSA plan is integrated,analyzes its operating rules and potential risks.Through the simulation results of different situations,the risks faced by the GSA plan were studied from the three aspects of participant age,number,and mortality rate,and corresponding suggestions were given.The results show that the GSA plan has a complete theoretical system framework,good income stability and actuarial fairness.The stability and returns of the dynamic annuity pool are higher than those of the closed annuity pool,and it has more investment value.(3)The innovative concept of the ability of GSA plan to resist risks was put forward.We made an in-depth research on the feasibility of GSA plan,and discussion on the compliance of mutual insurance and mutual assistance plans.The results show that GSA plan has strong resistance to sudden changes in risks.It is suitable for the situation of Chinese population and is an effective means to manage longevity risks.It has brought important enlightenment to the develop--ment of the pension industry of China.