The Model Of Investor Sentiment Contagion Based On Multiple Information Interaction

Behavioral finance theory believes that investors are bounded rationality,and investor sentiment,reflected in asset price returns,runs through investors' decision-making and behavior processes.Most existing research on investor sentiment focuses on two aspects: one is the research on the measurement of investor sentiment indicators and the second is the empirical research on the relationship between investor sentiment and asset prices.These studies have not explored the internal generation and diffusion of investor sentiment,especially the process of emotional contagion among individual investors.In addition,the external market environment will also have a certain impact on investor sentiment,especially changes in macro policies can always guide investors' expected direction.Under this background,we propose a brand-new investor sentiment contagion model,which comprehensively considers the influence of various factors such as investor psychology,neighbor investor views,and macro environment on the process of investor sentiment generation and conversion.First of all,we build a multi-emotion information interactive communication model that considers investor confidence.Emotional communicators are divided into two categories:positive emotional communicators and negative emotional communicators.At the same time,the wait-and-see state is introduced.Investors in the wait-and-see state will selectively spread positive or negative emotions based on their judgment of the market's expected future trend.According to mathematical analysis,the threshold of emotional propagation can be obtained,and the stability of the system at the equilibrium point of zero propagation is verified.Through numerical simulation of each key parameter in the model,we found that the amount of information that the investors are exposed to,the intensity of the interaction of the communicators and the follow-up effect of the investors are positively correlated with the final emotional diffusion scale.In addition,it's more conducive to the spread of positive emotions while the investors have more confidence in the future market development.Then on the basis of the above model,we further consider the impact of the external market environment on the change of investor's emotional state,and obtain the final investor sentiment contagion model.Similarly,we use the mathematical analysis method to carry out the necessary theoretical analysis of the model,and then compare analysis of different degrees of bull news and bear news in the market to the mechanism of investor sentiment balance process through the control group simulation experiment and the actual situation in real life.The simulation results show that the effects of bull news and bear news on investor sentiment aren't single.And whether the appearance of bull news can effectively hedge the negative impact of bear news on investor sentiment depends on whether it can help investors restore confidence.These results can help investors,listed companies,government departments and other market participants make better decisions.