| The occurrence of a large number of death events is an inevitable result of the coordinated development of human and environment.The Ming Dynasty was at the critical turning point of the the little ice age of Ming and Qing Dynasties,when the climate began to turn cold,and the cosmic period of Ming and Qing Dynasties,when disasters were frequent.The mass death events rapidly increased.Therefore,the study of the spatial-temporal characteristics of the large number of deaths events in the Ming Dynasty can strengthen human understanding of the relationship between population development,economic society,and the natural environment,and provide historical reference for adapting to living environment.Based on the Internet classic ancient books library including "Database of Chinese Classic Ancient Books",and "China Local Gazetteers Database" from from Beijing Erudition Digital Technology Research Center,a search of typical descriptors describing a large number of death events in the Ming Dynasty was conducted.Secondly,it is supplemented and corrected through a large number of compilation of books and "Ming Veritable Records".Finally,the sequence of mass death events in the Ming Dynasty was obtained.The temporal and spatial distribution,cause analysis are analyzed by using methods of linear trend,leastsquares,wavelet analysis Mann-Kendall mutation test and other methods.The main conclusions are as follows:①There were 73a occurring the "dead more than ten thousand" events on the natural level in the Ming Dynasty,in which there were 276a,accumulated 960 counties are involved(No repetitions removed.The same below.),and the disaster probability was about 26.4%.There were more years occurring the events in Jiajing and Wanli Years.The probability of disaster is greater in Tianshun,Jingtai and Chongzhen Years.The average frequency of 10a is about 2.6a/10a,and the average of 10a is about 34.3 counties 110a.The frequency of 10a and the counties of 10a show a trend of gradually increasing volatility,and they basically show synchronous changes.The 10a frequency exists in two cycles of 30-50a and 20-40a.The number of affected counties was 410,with an average disaster frequency about 2.3 times/country.High frequency areas are mainly concentrated in Hebei,Jiangsu and Zhejiang,and Henan.The disaster situation began to deepen significantly in mid-early period of the Ming Dynasty(1437-1505).There were 72a occurring the "dead more than ten thousand" events on the social level in the Ming Dynasty,and accumulated 681 counties are involved,and the disaster probability was about 26.1%.There were more years occurring the events in Jiajing,Chongzhen,Wanli and Hongwu Years.The probability of disaster is greater in Chongzhen,Jianwen and Longqing Years.The average frequency of 10a is about 2.6a/10a,and the average of 10a is about 24.3 counties/10a.The 10a frequency and the 10a counties are basically in synchronous change.Both of them showed a low value state in the middle and front part of the Ming Dynasty,while they showed a high value state at the beginning and end of the Ming Dynasty.The 10a frequency exists in two cycles of 60-80a and 40-60a.The number of affected counties was 424,with an average disaster frequency about 1.6 times/country.High frequency areas are concentrated in Hebei,Shanxi,Shandong,Yunnan and Guizhou.The disaster situation began to deepen significantly in mid-late period of the Ming Dynasty(1506-1574).②There were 167a occurring the "dead people lying on top of each other" events on the natural level in the Ming Dynasty,and accumulated 2805 counties are involved,and the disaster probability was about 60.5%.There were more years occurring the events in Jiajing and Wanli Years.The probability of disaster is greater in Chongzhen,Zhengde and Chenghua Years.The average frequency of 10a is about 5.3a/10a,and the average of 10a is about 100.2 counties/10a.The frequency of 10a and the counties of 10a show a trend of gradually increasing volatility,and the 10a frequency growth reached a very significant level(p<0.01).Both of them generally show synchronous changes.The 10a frequency exists in three cycles of 30-40a,60-100a,and 120-140a.It mutated in 1446 from few to many.The number of affected counties was 838,with an average disaster frequency about 3.3 times/country.High frequency areas are mainly concentrated in Hebei,Jiangsu and Zhejiang,Shandong,Shaanxi,and Hubei.The disaster situation began to deepen significantly in mid-early period of the Ming Dynasty(1437-1505).There were 58a occurring the "dead people lying on top of each other" events on the social level in the Ming Dynasty,and accumulated 465 counties are involved,and the disaster probability was about 21.0%.There were more years occurring the events in Jiajing and Chongzhen Years.The probability of disaster is greater in Tianqi and Chongzhen Years.The average frequency of 10a is about 2.1a/10a,and the average of 10a is about 16.6 counties/10a.The frequency of 10a and the counties of 10a show a trend of gradually increasing volatility,and they basically show synchronous changes.The 10a frequency has a cycle of 60-80a.The number of affected counties was 257,with an average disaster frequency about 1.8 times/country.High frequency regions are concentrated in Shanxi,Guizhou,Guangdong,and Anhui.The disaster situation began to deepen significantly in mid-late period of the Ming Dynasty(1506-1574).③There were 149a occurring the "human cannibalism" events on the natural level in the Ming Dynasty,and accumulated 2978 counties are involved,and the disaster probability was about 54.0%.There were more years occurring the events in Jiajing and Wanli Years.The probability of disaster is greater in Chongzhen and Chenghua Years.The average frequency of 10a is about 5.3a/10a,and the average of 10a is about 106.4 counties/10a.The frequency of 10a and the counties of 10a show a trend of gradually increasing volatility,and the 10a frequency growth has reached a significant level(p<0.05).Both of them basically show synchronous changes.The 10a frequency has two cycles of 30-50a and 70-90a.It mutated in 1458 from few to many.The number of affected counties was 753,with an average disaster frequency about 4.0 times/country.High frequency areas are concentrated in Hebei,Henan,Shanxi,Shandong,Jiangsu,Anhui,Hubei,Shaanxi,Gansu,Sichuan,and Liaoning.The disaster situation began to deepen significantly in mid-early period of the Ming Dynasty(1437-1505).There were 17a occurring the "human cannibalism" events on the social level in the Ming Dynasty,and accumulated 186 counties are involved,and the disaster probability was about 6.2%.There were more years occurring the events in Jiajing and Wanli Years.The probability of disaster is greater in Chongzhen and Chenghua Years.The average frequency of 10a is about 0.6a 110a,and the average of 10a is about 6.6 counties 110a.The frequency of 10a and the counties of 10a show a trend of gradually increasing volatility,and they show synchronous changes.10a frequency exists in the cycle of 80-120a.The number of affected counties was 117,with an average disaster frequency about 1.6 times/country.High frequency areas are concentrated in Guizhou,Sichuan,Shaanxi,and Henan.The disaster situation began to deepen significantly in late Ming Dynasty(1575-1644).④The causes of mass death events include both natural and social factors.Among the natural factors,there are three main factors.First,the climate,warm and humid corresponds to a small number of death events in the population,and cold and dry correspond to more frequently.The second is the geological conditions.The regions prone to earthquakes,including Shanxi,Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,Henan,and Yunnan,are located in China’s highly active fault blocks.Third is geographical location.Storm surges mainly occurred in the southeast coastal areas,such as Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Fujian.Among the social factors,there are three main factors.The first is war.There was a positive correlation between the war in the Ming Dynasty and the mass death events at the social level.The second is the government factor.The weakening of the government’s disaster relief capacity in the late Ming Dynasty,the abandonment of water conservancy projects,and the heavy taxation are all the causes of frequent disasters.The third is population change.The increase of the population leads to the tension of the human-land relationship,which will further lead to the deterioration of the living environment and be more vulnerable to the threat of disasters.This will lead to a large number of death events and frequent peasant uprisings.In summary,there were a large number of death events in the Ming Dynasty in Jiajing,Wanli,and Chongzhen,and the probability of disasters in Chenghua,Tianqi,and Chongzhen was relatively large.The frequency and counties of 10a have basically changed synchronously.On the social level,the frequency and counties of the "dead more than ten thousand" events in the Ming Dynasty were characterized by "two heads high,middle low".Except this,the frequency and counties of a large number of death events in the Ming Dynasty showed a trend of increasing from less to more.High-frequency areas are mainly concentrated in Shanxi,Henan,Jiangsu,Guizhou,Shaanxi,Shandong,and Hebei.Comparative analysis shows that the "dead people lying on top of each other" events was the most serious,followed by the "human cannibalism"events,and finally the "dead more than ten thousand" events.The deathevents caused by the deterioration of natural conditions in the Ming Dynasty were greater than those on the social level. |
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