A Study Of Travel Time Risk Attitude And Its Impact On The Value Of Time Reliability

Different travelers will show different risk attitudes when facing trips with uncertain factors.The risk attitude of travelers to travel time is an important fac tor that affects travel decision-making behavior.The reliability of travel time is an important indicator to measure the operation quality of the transportation system.For travelers,the reliability of travel time has value.Research on travel time risk attitude and the value of travel time reliability is an important basis for revealing the mechanism of traffic behavior and optimizing the traffic demand model.This paper uses the survey data of residents’ willingness to travel in Kunming to study the measurement and influencing factors of commuters’ travel time risk attitudes and the impact of travel time risk attitudes on the value of travel time reliability.The main research work is as follows:(1)Based on the choice of departure time by car and bus commuters in different travel scenarios,a travel time risk attitude measurement method is established,and the travel time risk attitude value of travelers is measured,according to the risk attitude value from small to large,the proportions of the top 25%,the middle 50%,and the bottom 25% are divided into 3 risk groups.The results show that the travel time budget of the vast majority of commuters is greater than the average travel time of the journey,showing risk aversion.Furthermore,it analyzes the group differences in the risk attitudes of car and bus commuters on travel time.(2)The Ordered Logit model is used to analyze the factors affecting the risk attitude of travel time.The results s how that the gender,education al level,interaction between gender and education al level of car commuters,the number of family employment,and the situation of children at home have a significant impact on their travel time risk attitudes;for public tran sport commuters,education al level and occupation have a significant impact on their travel time risk attitudes.(3)Based on the Mean Variance model,take the public transportation group as an example to calibrate the travel time value and reliability val ue.Subsequently,the different risk groups of the public transportation group were calibrated separately,and the influence of the travel time risk attitude on the value of travel time and the value of travel time reliability was analyzed.The results sho w that the travel time risk attitude has a significant impact on the value of travel time and the value of travel time reliability.The value of travel time and the value of travel time reliability of the group most inclined to avoid risks are relatively l ow,and the reliability rate(the ratio of the reliability value to the time value)is higher,which means that the group is sensitive to the reliability of the travel time;the reliability rate of the group with a middle level of risk attitude is basicall y the same as that of the group that avoids risks most,but the value of travel time and the value of travel time reliability are relatively high;the group that is more inclined to pursue risk has a higher time value.