Research On The Impact Of Epidemic, Heating And Urban Renovation On Urban Air Qualit

Since the beginning of 2020,COVID-19 has greatly changed people’s lives.Among them,national control measures have a significant impact on people’s trav-el and production activities of enterprises.Therefore,the study of the impact of COVID-19 on air quality has also become a topic of interest for scholars.Based on Harbin,this paper studies and quantifies 3 factors,namely,COVID-19,heating and urban renewal,to 3 air quality indicators AQI,SO₂and PM2.5.Firstly,based on regression and ARMA model,make a simple judgment on the impact of the three indicators.The results show that among the three factors,heating has the most significant impact,followed by the epidemic situation.Therefore,these two factors are selected to establish an intervention model.In this paper,two methods are used to establish the intervention model.The first method establishes the ARIMA model for the data in pre intervention period,and takes the difference between the predicted value and the real value as the inter-vention impact data to establish the intervention model and make prediction.The first approach is the usual practice in intervention analysis.However,the establish-ment of intervention model is based on the predicted value in the future without the influence of intervention.Generally,the prediction effect decreases with the increase of prediction step.Thus,the amount of data to establish the intervention model is too small,which affects the effect of the model.Therefore,this paper proposes an improved intervention analysis strategy,that is,the second method.The second method selects the southern urban data according to the DTW algorithm to estab-lish the regression model,then takes the difference between the predicted value and the real value as the quantitative data of intervention impact to establish the inter-vention model and make prediction.Based on the regression model,it is possible to predict the data not affected by intervention events in a longer time.Thus,the intervention model has sufficient sample size.The results show that the improved intervention analysis strategy can achieve better prediction effect.