Research On The Impact Of International Oil Price Fluctuations On PetroChina's Operating Performance And Countermeasures

Generally,international oil prices fluctuate greatly because they are affected by various factors.These factors are,for instance,the supply and demand of oil throughout the word,the macroeconomic environment,politics etc.Under the impact of the 2020 epidemic,the global crude oil demand has plummeted,international oil pricees plummeted and crude oil futures prices once fell below zero.In this situation,CNPC,Sinopec and CNOOC,the "three barrels of oil" had the poor performance on operating and financing.This background shows that the oil industry suffers great losses due to the plunge of oil prices caused by the short-term factors.On the other hand,the long-term cyclical downturn causes by the fluctuation of oil prices take place in the oil industry.These are two urgent problems to solve.The part of case study is shown from three aspects.The first one is the case study of CNPC's operating status and particularities.The second one is the sensitivity analysis on CNPC's main products.The analysis finds out that the rate of change in the sales price of crude oil affects operations most.That means international oil price fluctuations have an impact on CNPC's operating performance through crude oil sales prices.The third one is to analyze how the oil industry be affected by international oil price fluctuations.This paper studies the transmission mechanism of the impact of international oil price fluctuations on CNPC's operating performance and studies the existing measures of CNPC to deal with the risks of international oil price fluctuations and finds out the existing problems.The part of quantitative analysis: This study uses the VAR model as a framework to conduct a factual analysis of the impact of international oil price fluctuations on CNPC's operating performance.The factual analysis clarifies the individual causal relationship from international oil prices fluctuations to CNPC's operating performance.The same promotion effect and the impact duration of international oil price fluctuations on CNPC's operating performance are figured out as well.This study uses the ARDL model as a framework to conduct extreme scenario analysis on the impact of international oil price fluctuations on CNPC's operating performance,test the performance of CNPC's operating performance under mild,moderate,and severe fluctuations in international oil prices and compare it with those of comparable companies in the industry.Based on the results of factual analysis,the trading frequency and trading plan of CNPC's hedging strategy are set.Based on the results of extreme scenario analysis,the hedging ratio is set for different fluctuations of international oil prices.Simulate the implementation of the hedging strategy of CNPC in the past five years,calculate the crude oil sales revenue after the strategy is implemented,and further measure the performance of CNPC's operating performance after risk adjustment,confirming the effectiveness of the strategy.Provide risk warning to CNPC's hedging strategy.This research provides new cognition and ideas for other companies in my country's oil and gas industry,and has certain constructive enlightenment and significance.