| There are so many ancient Chinese books in the historical period.Looking through the ancient books,you can find that there are countless incidents of mass deaths caused by famine(The Mass Deaths Caused by Famine,hereinafter referred to as MDCF).Describe it with typical descriptive words such as "wang" and "the deceased's pillow".This article is based on historical data to obtain the MDCF data of the Ming Dynasty,comprehensively using mathematical statistics,wavelet analysis,MK test,correlation analysis,filter analysis,regression analysis,ArcGIS spatial analysis and other methods to analyze the characteristics of the time and space distribution of MDCF in different periods of the Ming Dynasty and the overall Statistical analysis of the disaster chain,and discussion of the natural and social environmental elements of MDCF,the research shows:(1)The time and space characteristics of MDCF in Ming DynastyThe early Ming Dynasty lasted 68 years and there were 5 emperor dynasties.Among them,the Yongle and Xuande dynasties were more severely affected.The frequency of the event was 17 times,with an average of once every 4 years.The frequency of events can be divided into five stages,showing a cycle of high-low-high-low-high alternating.There are 25 provinces of events,which occur once every 2.7 years on average.They can be divided into five stages,showing the characteristics of periodic fluctuations of highlow-high-low-high.In terms of spatial distribution,the frequency,density,and thickness of events form high-value areas in the Jianghuai area,forming two high-frequency centers in Anhui and Jiangsu.The mid-Ming Dynasty lasted 137 years(1436-1572),and there were 8 imperial dynasties.Among them,the Jiajing dynasty was the most severe and the Longqing dynasty was the least.The frequency of events was 113,with an average of once every 1.2 years.The frequency of events can be divided into four stages,presenting the stage characteristics of rising-slightly falling-slowly rising-rapidly falling.The number of event provinces presents the stage characteristics of volatility rise-slow rise-gentle-rapid decline.In terms of spatial distribution,the frequency,density,and thickness of events formed high-value areas in North China and Northeast China,forming three highfrequency centers in Henan,Anhui,and Jiangsu.The late Ming Dynasty lasted 72 years(1573-1644),and there were 4 imperial dynasties.Among them,the disasters in the Chongzhen and Wanli dynasties were the most serious,and the disaster in the Taichang dynasty was the lightest.The frequency of events can be divided into three stages,showing the characteristics of rising-slowly falling-rising stages.The number of provinces can be divided into three stages,showing the stage characteristics of rising-falling-rapid rise.In terms of spatial distribution,the frequency,density,and thickness of the events formed high-value areas in North and East China and the northern part of Central China,forming two high-frequency centers in Shandong and Henan.The Ming Dynasty lasted 277 years(1368-1644),with a total of 17 imperial dynasties.The disasters in the early Ming were lighter and higher in the mid Ming,reaching the highest in the late Ming and the disasters were severe in the late Ming.Among them,the Chongzhen dynasty was the most serious disaster,followed by the Jiajing dynasty,Wanli dynasty and Chenghua dynasty.The frequency of MDCF in the Ming Dynasty can be divided into five stages,showing the characteristics of low frequency-rising-high frequency-falling-slowly rising.The provincial sequence can be divided into four stages,showing the stage characteristics of low frequency-rising-fallingrapid rising.The frequency of mutations from less to more occurred around 1448;the province's mutations occurred from less to more around 1438.In terms of spatial distribution,events occurred more frequently in North China,Central China and Northeast China,with Shandong,Henan,Hebei,and Shanxi as high-frequency regions,and Northeast,Northwest and Southwest regions as low-frequency regions.The frequency,density,and thickness of events formed high-value areas in North China,Central China and Northeast China,forming two high-frequency centers in Shandong and Henan.In terms of county changes,compared with the early Ming Dynasty,the county area expanded rapidly in the mid-Ming Dynasty,the extent of the disaster increased,and the center shifted to the north.Compared with the mid-Ming Dynasty,the incidents in the late Ming-Ming period had a larger scope and more severe damage,and the disaster centers were more concentrated than in the mid-Ming Dynasty.(2)The characteristics of the disaster chain of MDCF in Ming DynastyThe MDCF in the Ming Dynasty clearly recorded a total of 1,548 counties with a single factor,followed by double factors,and the least multifactor.The single factor is mainly drought,flood,epidemic and locust plague,and the manifestation of the disaster chain is drought-starvation;water-starvation;epidemic-starvation;locust-starvation.The dual factors are mainly drought locust,drought water,and drought and epidemic disasters.The manifestation of the disaster chain is drought-locust-famine;drought-water-famine;drought-epidemic-famine.The multi-factors are mainly drought-locust plague,droughtwater plague,and drought-locust water disasters.The manifestation of the disaster chain is drought-locust-epidemic-famine;drought-water-epidemic-famine;drought-locustwater-famine.Events and droughts,floods,epidemics,and locust plagues areˇsignificantly correlated in time.The correlation is shown as drought>floods>locust plagues>plagues;events and droughts,floods,plagues,and locust plagues are significantly correlated in space.The performance is drought>flood>locust plague>plague.(3)The influence of natural environmental factors on MDCF in Ming DynastyIn the Ming Dynasty,MDCF was negatively correlated with temperature changes.Cold events occurred frequently,while warm events were relatively rare.The regression equation of the two is y=-1.862x-0.739,and the cold and warm climate can explain 36.3%of the events.The MDCF and the humidity change show an inverse change.The dry period events are frequent,and the humid period events are relatively few.The regression equation of the two is y=-0.248x+3.416×10-11,but there is no significant linear correlation.The difference in MDCF gradient is opposite to the difference in altitude gradient.The number of MDCF counties in the third-level ladder accounts for 73.78%of the total counties;the number of MDCF counties in the second-level ladder accounts for 24.76%of the total counties;and the number of MDCF counties in the first-level ladder accounts for the total number of counties.1.46%.MDCF has more dense river networks and more serious disasters at the junctions of main and tributary streams,mainly in the Yellow River Basin,the Yangtze River Basin and the Huai River Basin.MDCF is more serious in areas with severe vegetation damage.(4)The impact of the social environment on the MDCF in the Ming DynastyThe increase in the population causes greater environmental pressure and reduces the ability to respond to disasters,which leads to an increase in MDCF,However,the excessive frequency and scale of natural disasters and wars will in turn lead to a decrease in the population.The trend of change between war and MDCF is basically the same.During the period of more natural disasters,MDCF increased,inciting civil uprisings,and war chaos increased.When war broke out,people were unable to engage in agricultural production activities well,social economy stagnated,and life could not be guaranteed.,MDCF frequency and scale have also increased.At the same time,the government's weak disaster relief capabilities,heavy taxes,unrepaired water conservancy,and excessive land reclamation will have a serious impact on agriculture and people's production and life,cause severe famines,and lead to massive deaths. |
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