High-sensitivity Solar Terms And Dominant Meteorological Incentives For Typical Cardiovascular And Cerebrovascular Diseases

The intensification of global climate anomalies has made the phenomenon of sudden cold and hot weather more prominent,and the risk of inducing certain related diseases has also increased significantly.In order to explore the onset characteristics of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases along the 24 solar terms,and reveal the main meteorological factors affecting the morbidity in different periods,the number of emergency room(ER)visits for cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in Beijing from 2008 to 2012,as well as the meteorological observations were collected and analyzed.Based on the varied incidence of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in different periods,the generalized additive model and the distributed lag non-linear model were adopted to explore the exposure-response relationship between meteorological inducers and ER visit counts.And the model was stratified by age and sex.We hope to reveal its dominant meteorological factor and provide a new scientific basis for the prevention and control of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.The main findings are as follows:(1)The results showed that,there were two high-sensitive solar terms for cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in Beijing,respectively occurred at the stage from“Awakening of Insects” to “Grain Rain”,and from “White Dew” to “Winter Solstice”.In contrast,the ER attendance was lowest from “Grain in Ear” to“Summer Solstice”.Furthermore,the coronary heart disease and cerebral infarction were chose as typical representatives of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,respectively.The corresponding leading meteorological inducers for cardiocerebrovascular diseases are mean temperature,and similar effects of mean temperature on these two diseases were revealed,which showed opposite patterns in the two peaks of morbidity.And in the most extreme climate of the cold and hot periods corresponding to the low incidence.(2)Based on this result,the advanced time series model was used to control the influence of interference factors such as average temperature and diurnal temperature change,and the diurnal range of temperature in 24 hours was further used to model and analyze,so as to reveal the influence mechanism of interdiurnal variation and intraday variation of temperature on two kinds of diseases.The results showed that the two stages of high incidence of coronary heart disease in a year were characterized by large interdiurnal temperature changes.In the transition phase with the smallest interdiurnal temperature change value and positive and negative temperature change throughout the year,the number of patients is exactly the least.Therefore,this result is used as the basis to divide the whole year into two phases,which are dominated by positive or negative temperature changes.The corresponding relationship between the peak of cerebral infarction within the year and negative temperature change was also good.The modeling results show that the lag of the effect of temperature change on coronary heart disease is 3 to 5 days,and the relative risk is up to 1.31 times of unexposed.Young people have a strong immediate response to positive temperature change(RR = 1.305,95% CI:1.034?1.647),females and the elderly are more sensitive to negative temperature changes.The effect of temperature change on cerebral infarction is dominated by immediate effects,and the relative risk is up to 1.23 times of unexposed.the abnormal temperature change,opposite to the dominant temperature change,significantly increase the risk of cerebral infarction in young and middle-aged populations.The short-term effects of 24-hour temperature changes on cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases are significant,and there are inter-species differences in the risk of temperature changes induced by each stage.(3)Further research shows,during the period when the daily temperature range changed from above average to below average,the lowest point and the turning point of the onset of coronary heart disease and the period when the onset of cerebral infarction in early winter decreased.Modeling results show that high temperature diurnal range lagging effect on coronary heart disease mainly in the day and 5 days is relatively obvious,the relative risk of exposure to 1.096 times the size of maximum(95% CI: 1.015 ? 1.185),low temperature diurnal range can lead to increased risk of coronary heart disease in spring and winter,lag period for 5 days(RR=1.111 95% CI: 1.036 ? 1.191).However,the high and low diurnal temperature range both had impact on the risk of cerebral infarction,which was more obvious when the delay was 2 and 5 days,and the maximum relative risk was 1.129 times that of the unexposed period(95%ci: 1.007 ? 1.266).All in all,both diseases are more sensitive in women and the elderly under different temperature variations.This research makes up for the shortcomings of similar studies in the past,and provides a new scientific basis for the prediction and prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.