Research On Emergency Decision-making Method Based On Probabilistic Hesitant Fuzzy Information

Probabilistic hesitant fuzzy sets(PHFSs),as an extension of a new type of fuzzy set,contain two parts-the membership values and the probability distribution associated with membership values.Based on the PHFSs,this article searches the causes,occurrences,and evolutionary trends of emergencies from the perspective of system theory.And some decision-making methods are proposed to provide reference value for emergency management department,the following research work has been carried out:1)An approach for the cause analysis of emergencies with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information is proposed.Due to the uncertainty and hesitancy of experts' cognition,FCMs model still have defects in the modeling of this situation.Based on FCMs and PHFSs,a new extended fuzzy cognitive map model-Probabilistic Hesitant Fuzzy Cognitive Maps(PHFCM)is proposed in this article.Finally,PHFCM was used in the cause analysis of emergencies.2)The probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information aggregation problem of association of attributes is investigated.Based on Bonferroni mean operator and PHFSs,several operators are presented.Also,their desirable properties are discussed.Furthermore,in order to rank the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy elements,a signed distance for probabilistic hesitant fuzzy element is defined.And the proposed method is applied in the selection of emergency decision-making alternatives.3)Investigate a multi-attribute decision-making problem with poor information.The available decision information is relatively limited due to the high urgency of selecting the optimal emergency alternative,and it's difficult for decision-makers to make accurate judgments on the emergency alternatives at the current stage.Based on the current decision information for each time period,the GM(1,1)model is used to predict the decision information at the next time in this article.Moreover,a novel probabilistic hesitant fuzzy distance measure based on the hesitancy degree is proposed,then a grey relational degree model with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information is established.Finally,by calculating the grey relational degree between each alternative and the ideal alternative,and the optimal emergency alternative is selected.4)A multi-stage multi-attribute decision-making problem with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information is investigated.Under complex decision-making environment,the information may not be fully utilized and the results may not be reasonable when decision-makers make decision with single decision-making information.A dynamic emergency decision-making method is proposed.Firstly,the decision-making information at the next period is predicted based on the GM(1,1)model.Secondly,a mathematical programming model based on novel average deviation and closeness degree is established to determine the weights of stage.Finally,based on the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS method,the emergency plan is selected.5)A multi-attribute group decision-making problem with incomplete probability distribution information is studied.Firstly,based on PHFSs and CRE,probabilistic hesitant fuzzy cumulative residual entropy(PHFCRE)is proposed.Then,a mathematic programming model is presented to determine the incomplete information,which is based on PHFCRE and maximum entropy theory.Furthermore,based on PHFCRE and entropy weight method,a novel approach to determine the attribute weight is developed.Finally,the emergency plans based on probabilistic hesitant fuzzy satisfaction degree of alternatives are selected.The above research results enrich the connotation of emergency decision-making methods based on probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information at the theoretical level,method level and application level.It is of great significance to promote the construction of an emergency management system and ensure the safety of people's lives and property.