| It is evident that climate change can alter the spatial distribution of wildlife.In this context,the interaction between species with overlapping niche,especially the balance of competition for resource utilization,might be affected by climate change,which further affects population dynamics as well as the structure of wildlife community,bringing about difficulties in the long-term protection of wildlife and their habitats.Therefore,it is important to understand how wildlife spatial distribution and accompanying interspecific resource competition would change under the future climate change scenario.Such knowledge would greatly improve the effectiveness of wildlife conservation.However,existing studies on the impact of climate change mostly focused on predicting potential shifts in suitable habitats of single species under climate change,and little attention has been paid to the potential changes in the interspecific resource competition caused by such spatial shifting.In this study,we addressed this issue by investigating the potential effects of climate change on the spatial distributions and interspecific resource competitions between giant pandas(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)and sympatric competitive species(i.e.,black bears(Ursus thibetanus),golden takins(Budorcas taxicolor)and wild boars(Sus scrofa))under different climate change scenarios.An ensemble niche modeling approach was employed to model spatial shifts in the suitable habitat of giant pandas and sympatric competitive animals between the current climate and future climates in 2050 and 2070.We further analyzed the spatial patterns of niche overlapping between giant pandas and the competitive animals in the Qinling Mountains under different climate change scenarios.The main results are as follows:a)Climate change has significant impacts on the spatial distribution pattern of giant pandas and competing species in the Qinling Mountains.Under the RCP4.5 emission scenario,the potential suitable habitat area of giant pandas will increase by 36.51%in 2050 and 25.59%in 2070,respectively.However,the suitable habitat area of black bears,golden takins,and wild boars will decrease.Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario,the potential suitable habitat area of giant pandas,black bears,golden takins,and wild boars will reduce;in particular,the suitable habitat area of black bears and wild boars will shrink significantly by 2070,decreasing by 80.39%and 81.25%respectively.b)Under current climate conditions,the degree of niche overlapping between giant pandas and golden takins is the highest(D=0.8454,I=0.9697).A lower degree of niche overlapping is between giant pandas and wild boars,with D and I values of 0.6976 and 0.9272,respectively.The degree of niche overlapping is the lowest(D=0.6854,I=9190)between giant pandas and black bears.c)The analysis of spatial changes in niche overlapping between species showed that,under the RCP8.5 emission scenario,the overlapping area of suitable habitats of giant pandas and black bears will decrease by 60.42%in 2050 and 75.95%in 2070,respectively.The overlapping areas of suitable habitat for giant pandas and golden takins showed a trend towards the north of the Qinling Mountains.Under the RCP4.5 emission scenario,the overlapping habitats of giant pandas and wild boars will be mainly distributed in the central regions of the Qinling Mountains in 2050,and will change towards the east of the Qinling Mountains in 2070.Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario,the overlapping area of suitable habitat between giant pandas and wild boars will decrease by 54.39%in 2050 and 77.97%in 2070,respectively.To sum up,future climate changes can greatly shape the spatial overlapping pattern of giant pandas and sympatric competitive species in the Qinling Mountains,whilst the interspecific competition among them would be intensified under both mild and worst climate change scenarios.The potential competition for food resources faced by giant pandas in the central part of the Qinling Mountains may decrease,especially in areas outside Xinglongling,but the competitive pressure in the eastern part of the Qinling Mountains may increase,which is mainly outside the current reserve network.The results of this research can provide scientific supports for the conservation and management of giant pandas and wildlife and their habitats in the Qinling Mountains. |
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