Some Thoughts On Forecasting And Analysis Of Energy Demand In Heilongjiang Province

Since the reform and open policy, along with the Heilongjiang Province economy’s swift development, has assumed the tendency which to the energy need rises suddenly, the energy supply and demand contradictory day by day is also prominent. Obviously, whether does the energy developmental strategy’s reasonable making relate the Heilongjiang Province economy long-term healthy, stable, to develop continually, but the energy need modelling and the analysis provide the theory support for the making energy developmental strategy, has the important reality guiding sense.The research energy need’s analysis method may converge two kinds generally:First, energy need predictive parsing method; first, energy need factor analysis method. Regarding energy need’s predictive parsing method, because the economic phenomena is in itself quite complex, the sole method to the energy need forecast that the precision enhances the effect not to be obvious. Regarding energy need’s factor analysis method, often establishes the model by some kind of economic theory or to the economic activities understanding the theory relations form, but rests on the economic theory or establishes the model to the economic activities understanding, has the subjectivity in the modelling itself, creates, because knew that on is not very comprehensive and penetrates causes the analysis result the deviation. Based on 20th century developed econometrics to address this issue provided a good basis for the theory and methodology of the energy needs of empirical research. Forecast regarding the energy need that this article with (ARIMA) combines the forecast model with the tendency extrapolation from the return running mean to analyze, is for the purpose of enhancing the forecasting result the stability and the precision, but regarding the energy need factor analysis, this article mainly puts in order using the association with the error correction model analyzes, obtains the energy need and the national economy, the population, between the urbanization rate, the industrial structure change, the structure of energy consumption change, the technology advancement the quantification relations. Finally will put forward the Heilongjiang Province future energy sustainable development countermeasure proposal.