Rural Education,Labor Loss And Agricultural Development ——Research Based On DEA And Panel Data

In the past,the stimulation of agricultural development was more about increasing the input of factors,but this extensive agricultural development model no longer has practical significance today and is inconsistent with the concept of sustainable agricultural development.Therefore,to realize the healthy development of agriculture,the key is to change to an intensive development model and strive to improve agricultural total factor productivity.With the development of agriculture and the progress of education entering a new historical stage,exploring the relationship between them should keep pace with the times.Firstly,this paper uses the DEA-Malmquist productivity index decomposition method to find that from 2008 to 2019,the total factor productivity of the agricultural sector was affected by the reduction of technological progress and continued to decline.On the other hand,there is indeed a significant positive relationship between technological progress and total factor productivity improvement,but after entering a new development period,the efficiency decomposition results have undergone different changes,and education improvement and agricultural development have an“inverted U”-shaped relationship.At the same time,the article also compares and calculates the changes in productivity of the grain crop wheat and the cash crop cotton.Secondly,using the panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions（except Tibet）from 2008 to 2019 and the feasible generalized least squares estimation（FGLS）,this paper analyzes the relationship between rural education and agricultural output.The regression coefficient is small.Then,the article uses different efficiency decomposition results and education indicators to carry out robust regression,and uses the two-stage least squares（2SLS）method to find that the improvement of rural education level leads to the reduction of technological progress in the agricultural sector by accelerating the loss of rural labor,which in turn hinders increased agricultural total factor productivity.At the same time,the education level is divided into illiteracy,primary school,junior middle school,senior high school,college and above,and the heterogeneity is analyzed.The results show that illiteracy and high school education have a negative impact on rural economic development,and the impact is the greatest.Primary and secondary education can promote the development of the agricultural economy.Although the education level of college degree or above can also promote the economy,it has the least impact.Finally,through the empirical analysis of different crops,it is found that the effect of rural education on the food crop wheat and the cash crop cotton is in the opposite direction,and the latter is basically consistent with the overall agricultural level.The article points out: on the one hand,the improvement of rural education level should not only improve the quality of workers,but also retain certain basic talents for the agricultural department,which is an important problem to be faced by rural development in the next stage.On the other hand,the improvement of rural education level should be focused and targeted.We should strengthen the vocational and technical training of grain crop planting,cultivate professional farmers with agricultural machinery as the carrier,and retain the labor force for labor-intensive industries such as cotton.