Research On The Structural Employment Effect Of Macroeconomic Policies ——Simulation Analysis Based On ABM

Employment is not only the source of national wealth,the foundation of social stability,but also the foundation of economic development.Under the new normal background of increasing speed,shifting gears and economic transformation,coupled with the impact of the epidemic,China’s labor market has a certain degree of "difficulties in recruiting workers" and "difficulties in employment".The structural unemployment with both unemployment and job vacancies has gradually emerged and become increasingly severe,which is rooted in the mismatch between labor supply and demand.Under this background,it is extremely urgent to realize the matching of labor supply and demand and alleviate the structural contradiction of employment.Therefore,it is of practical significance to explore the structural employment effect of macroeconomic policies and put forward corresponding policy suggestions to alleviate the increasingly severe structural unemployment problem.In this paper,ABM microscopic simulation technology is used to build a simulated objective economic entity,realize the dynamic evolution analysis of structural employment problem,depict the microscopic basis of searching and matching process between unemployed and vacant positions in structural unemployment problem,and design two policy simulation experiments to simulate the influence of tax policy and vocational skills upgrading policy on the changes of unemployment and vacant positions,and explore the structural employment of macroeconomic policies by using the change of beverage curve displacement fitted by policy simulation The running results of the simulation experiment show that:（1）the model tests the typical facts of macroeconomic dynamics and microeconomic dynamics such as economic cycle dynamics and labor market operation mechanism,and the simulation results are qualitatively consistent with the economic theory;（2）The government adopts a positive tax policy by properly adjusting the enterprise income tax rate.On the one hand,it is conducive to reducing the unemployment rate of workers and improving the wage income level of workers,and there is a phenomenon of increasing marginal effect;On the other hand,improving the matching efficiency of the labor market has a positive effect on alleviating the structural unemployment contradiction between labor supply and demand,that is,the structural unemployment is reduced,which highlights the policy effect.（3）On the one hand,the implementation of the vocational skills upgrading policy by the government is conducive to reducing the unemployment rate of workers.From a more microscopic perspective,the employment rate of workers with different skill levels has increased,and higher quality and more adequate employment have been achieved.But it also brings the negative effect that the wage income of workers with different skill levels has declined;On the other hand,it improves the matching efficiency of the labor market,alleviates the structural employment contradiction between labor supply and demand,and highlights the policy effect.