Research On SEIR Rumor Propagation Model And Its Extension In Uncertain Environment

With the advent of the era of big data,the number of Internet users in China has increased dramatically,and people can express all kinds of opinions online more freely and easily,which also accelerates the breeding of rumors.As a typical social phenomenon,rumor’s means of transmission and channels of transmission will change due to the disturbance of the environment.In recent years,the research of rumor propagation mechanism is very hot,and a large number of improved models based on SIS,SIR and SEIR rumor propagation models appear one after another.However,there are a large number of uncertain influencing factors in the environment,and it is of great significance to study the influence of these factors on the rumor propagation process,but only some scholars have explored this direction.Uncertainty theory is a special mathematical tool to study the phenomenon of uncertainty.Therefore,based on uncertainty theory,this thesis studies the rumor propagation model with uncertainty disturbance.Firstly,this thesis constructs an uncertain SEIR rumour propagation model based on uncertainty theory and verifies the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the proposed model under certain conditions,and the model is stable in mean.Then,the validity of the model is verified by numerical simulation.After comparing the uncertain SEIR model with the deterministic SEIR model,we found that under the same parameter values,the SEIR model with the uncertain disturbance can better fit the trend of rumor propagation in reality than the deterministic SEIR model.Secondly,for the rumour propagation model with immune degradation rate,natural entry rate and natural exit rate,this thesis adopts the method of introducing uncertain perturbation to the natural exit rate on the basis of the deterministic SEIRS model.In this thesis,the model of uncertain SEIRS rumor propagation is studied from three aspects:a model of uncertain SEIRS rumor propagation with multiple perturbations is proposed,the existence,uniqueness and stability of the solution of the model are verified,and the numerical simulation is carried out at last.The simulation results show that the uncertain SEIRS rumour propagation model is effective.Finally,taking the case of "Shuanghuanglian Oral Liquid can inhibit 2019-nCoV" as an example,this thesis makes a descriptive analysis of the rumor propagation process,and does a simulation experiment on the uncertain SEIR rumor propagation model.The results show that this model can effectively explain the rumor propagation process.Then,this thesis analyzes the control and governance measures of rumors,and compares the spread trend of rumors under different control strategies.The simulation results show that any parameter in the model can help to control the rampant rumors.