Research On Spatial And Temporal Heterogeneity Of The Effects Of Industrial Agglomeration And Population Size On Environmental Pollution

The construction of ecological civilization was included in the "Five-in-One" socialist modernization drive for the first time in the 18 th CPC National Congress,and a new concept of building a beautiful China was put forward.The 19 th CPC National Congress made the construction of ecological civilization a thousand-year plan for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation.With extensive industrial expansion and rapid population growth,problems such as resource shortage and environmental pollution have become increasingly prominent.How to control environmental pollution has become the primary task of the construction of ecological civilization.Pollutants produced by human life and production activities is the main cause of pollution of the environment,the rapid development of industry in our country and the rapid growth of the population is the main source of pollution emissions increase,and industrial agglomeration as an important form of the industrial development and population size as quantitative index of population development,further study of industrial agglomeration,population scale and the relationship between environmental pollution and to clarify the mechanism of action of both pollution to the environment,not only can provide theoretical support for regional pollution control work,and to solve the contradiction between economic development and ecological construction at the present stage in China has certain reference significance.By summarizing and combing relevant research literature at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the current research hotspots,compares various research methods and perspectives,and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the current industrial,population and environmental research fields.Design research ideas,select research methods and select research perspectives,and elaborate relevant research theories and methods;The effect mechanism of industrial agglomeration and population scale on environmental pollution is analyzed.The industrial agglomeration level and environmental pollution index of 30 provinces in China except Xizang were measured,and the development status and spatiotemporal characteristics of industrial agglomeration,population size and environmental pollution in China as a whole were analyzed.The geographically weighted regression model and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model were constructed,and the goodness of fit of the two models was compared.Based on the parameter regression results of the model with higher fitting degree,the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the impact coefficients of industrial agglomeration and population scale on environmental pollution was analyzed.The research results are as follows:(1)The development status and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of industrial agglomeration and population size.Starting from three aspects of overall development,regional differences and comparison between provinces and regions,this paper uses location entropy index to measure the level of industrial agglomeration,and studies the development status and spatial distribution of industrial agglomeration in China.Based on the overall change of China’s population scale and the characteristics of its development,this paper analyzes the current situation of China’s population development.The results show that the overall industrial agglomeration level in China presents a dynamic and stable trend,and there are obvious regional differences in industrial agglomeration.The agglomeration level in the eastern coastal region is high,the agglomeration level in the central region is rising,and the agglomeration level in the western region is always at a low level.The industrial agglomeration level of Jiangsu,Fujian,Guangdong,Henan,Tianjin and other provinces and regions is relatively high.Compared with the whole country,the industrial development of these provinces and regions has a certain comparative advantage,and the industrial agglomeration development degree is relatively high.Heilongjiang,Beijing,Gansu,Hainan and other industrial agglomeration level is low,do not have comparative advantages.With the migration of industrial industries to the central and western regions,the level of industrial agglomeration in the central and western regions has been improved correspondingly.The change of China’s population size shows the trend of steady increase,but it shows the characteristics of unbalanced development,mainly manifested in the imbalance of regional development,the gradual imbalance of urban and rural population,and the imbalance of age structure.China’s population presents a gradient distribution trend of "east,west",and gradually decreases from east to west.The gap between urban and rural population is gradually widening,and problems such as "urban disease" and the "Matthew effect" of rural development are becoming increasingly prominent.The age structure of the population is gradually unbalanced,the proportion of the elderly population is gradually increasing,the social burden is increasing,and the pension system needs to be improved urgently.(2)Current situation and spatio-temporal evolution of regional environmental pollution.Based on the "vertical and horizontal" comprehensive evaluation method and visual data analysis,the present situation of environmental pollution in China and the evolution of its spatial and temporal pattern were analyzed from the perspective of the current situation of pollution emission in China and the spatial and temporal differences of provincial pollution index.With the deepening of China’s attention to environmental pollution control,pollutant emissions have been declining year by year;According to the measured environmental pollution index,the environmental pollution index of China’s provinces and regions also shows a trend of decline.The provinces and regions with higher environmental pollution index are mainly concentrated in the economically developed regions along the eastern coast of China,and the pollution index gradually decreases from east to west,indicating that the environmental pollution control work has achieved good results.Spatial data visualization analysis also clearly presents the "east,west" gradient distribution pattern of environmental pollution degree in China’s provinces.(3)Spatial and temporal heterogeneity analysis of the effects of industrial agglomeration and population scale on environmental pollution.Theory analyzing the industrial agglomeration mechanism of action of pollution to the environment,population scale,explained from the perspectives of time and space for the necessity of environmental pollution,this paper analyzes the factors which influence through exploratory spatial data analysis method to study the since the correlation of the provinces and autonomous regions in our country environmental pollution,and build the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model and space-time geographically weighted regression(GTWR)model,based on the principle of optimal goodness-of-fit,selecting research model in this paper,with the result of the parameters of the model output analysis of spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The results show that there is an obvious spatial autocorrelation of environmental pollution in China,and the regression results of traditional regression models lacking spatial effects may be biased.The goodness of fit was compared between the output results of the GWR model and the GTWR model,and the GTWR model with time and space factors was determined as the best model,and the parameter results were analyzed.Industrial concentration coefficient of spatial distribution presents a "features" gradient distribution pattern,increase gradually from the east to the west,most provinces coefficient temporal changes to "fall" type of fluctuations,the coefficient of industrial agglomeration by falling is negative,the development of industrial concentration will eventually reduce the environment pollution,parts of central and western areas of industrial agglomeration development can aggravate environmental pollution at present stage,but the overall good,is the development trend of declining influence coefficient;Most of the provinces of population scale coefficient of temporal change appears as "U" type curve,the coefficient of population size basic is positive,the growth of population will continue to increase the pressure of environment,but the present stage our country population scale effect on environmental pollution,on the right side of the inverted "U" type population size increase in gradually reduce the influence of environmental pollution,coefficient of spatial distribution of gradient distribution of decreased gradually from east to west,the eastern region population size on the environment caused by the stress significantly higher than that of eastern and western regions,cause the least pressure of population growth and environment in the west.From the development trend of parameters,the continuous development of industrial agglomeration will eventually improve the environmental pollution,while the pressure on the environment caused by the increase of unit population is gradually alleviated.