Research On The Turnover Of Head Coaches In Chinese Super League Clubs And Its Influencing Factors Based On Survival Analysis Method

In recent years,under the strong support and effective guidance of policies,Chinese Super League has developed rapidly.As the soul of a professional team,the coach is the core human resource of the club and plays a pivotal role in the management and development of the team.Therefore,Once the coaches are changed,the impact will be very severe.The frequent occurrence of coach change events in the Super Lague is thought-provoking.Therefore,in order to explore the main factors affecting the change of coaches and the general life cycle of coaches,this paper takes the coaches of the Chinese Super League as the object and conducts an in-depth empirical analysis on the influencing factors of coach turnover.Based on the principal-agent theory and human capital theory,with survival analysis as the main method,this paper collects data on the coaches coached in the Super League clubs from 2010 to 2019,and draws on the researches of domestic and foreign scholars,constructing non-parametric Kaplan-Meier survival function and semi-parametric COX proportional regression model.On the one hand,it explores the overall cycle of coaches,and on the other hand,it analyzes the impact of team performance,expectations,and power on coaching turnover.This paper found that first,the life cycle of Chinese Super League coaches is generally shorter.More than one-third of the coaches left their clubs in the first year,and more than three-quarters of the coaches left the club in the second year;second,there are obvious differences in the coaching situation of domestic and foreign coaches.The coaching effect of foreign coaches is better than that of domestic coaches,but the tenure of foreign coaches is much shorter;third,the long-term performance of the team has a significant impact on the turnover of coaches,and the relationship of this effect is not linear;the short-term poor performance of the team increases the possibility of coaches being replaced;fourth,the club’s expectations will increases the possibility of coaches being replaced;fifth,the stability of the club owner can reduce the possibility of coaches changing,and the length of the coach’s tenure have a significant impact on the turnover.The results of this paper make up for the almost blank status of quantitative research on the factors affecting the turnover of professional football coaches in China,and innovatively apply survival analysis methods to study the replacement of coaches and the regularity of cycles,providing valuable help for the two-way selection of clubs and coaches,so that the club has a reliable and usable analysis basis in human resource management and strategic planning.