Population Aging And Financial Health Expenditure: Influence Mechanism And Effect Measure

The increasing degree of population aging will lead to changes in the demand for medical and healthcare services,and the continuous expansions of population aging will give challenges to the sustainability of fiscal medical and health expenditure.In general,the health of the elderly population begins to decline and the demand for health services is greater.Therefore,generally speaking,as the aging degree increases,the fiscal expenditure on health care will also increase.However,there are many factors affecting the fiscal medical and health expenditure in China.With the in-depth development of population aging,whether the fiscal medical and health expenditure will continue to grow is the first question studied in this paper:whether the growth of population aging will promote the growth of fiscal medical and health expenditure?Further,what are the mechanisms by which population aging affects fiscal health care expenditures? On the one hand,under the unique urban-rural dual structure,China is currently facing the coexistence of aging and urbanization.According to the overall national data,the urbanization rate has exceeded 60% in 2019.Nevertheless,considering the average urbanization rate of more than 80% in developed countries,China still has a long way to go in the urbanization process.The improvement of urbanization rate can give play to the agglomeration effect of cities and improve the economic efficiency of cities through the concentration of resources.Meanwhile,it may also improve the distribution efficiency of clinical and healthcare resources and increase the needs for medical and health services,so that the fiscal medical and health expenditure has to maintain a corresponding growth to meet the demand.Aging and urbanization are the development trends of China’s current population in age structure and spatial distribution.Therefore,firstly,through the analysis,it is concluded that both aging and urbanization will have a significant impact on the fiscal medical and health expenditure.Secondly,due to the differences in fertility concepts and health awareness between urban and rural areas in China,China’s urbanization process and population aging also influence each other.As the trend of urban-rural integration continues to strengthen,what will be the impact trend of population aging on fiscal medical and health expenditure? Therefore,this is the second question of this paper,with the development of urbanization,what is the relationship between aging and financial and medical expenditure? On the other hand,the quality of medical and health services in China still needs to be improved at the present stage.Due to the existing system and system problems,some health resources are improperly allocated and used,and the supply efficiency of medical and health resources is low,which affects the satisfaction degree of medical and health service needs of the elderly population.Therefore,the third question studied in this paper is the allocation efficiency of health resources play a partial or complete mediating effect between population aging and fiscal health expenditure?In order to tell the above answers,the research content of this paper mainly includes,firstly,it analyzes many factors affecting fiscal medical and health expenditure,studies the influence mechanism of population aging on fiscal medical and health expenditure and conducts effect measurement.Secondly,based on the data of each province from 2009 to 2018,a threshold effect model was established to conduct an empirical analysis on whether there is a threshold effect of urbanization rate on the influential of population aging on health expenditure.The empirical results show that population aging has a successful double threshold effect on health expenditure.Finally,the mediating effect model is used to further study whether the impact of population aging on health expenditure is affected by the allocation efficiency of health resources.It is found that population aging has a positive and significant promoting effect on fiscal medical and health expenditure,the impact of population aging on fiscal medical and health expenditure has a threshold effect of urbanization rate,and the allocation efficiency of medical and health resources has a partial mediating effect between population aging and fiscal medical and health expenditure.With the expansions of the aging population of our country,Many scholars have studied the problem of population aging in China,therefore,in this paper,on the basis of other research,further analysis of influence factors of our country’s fiscal health expenditure,to explore the population aging to fiscal health spending,the influence mechanism and effect measure.The results suggest that any local government policy based on public medical expenditure should focus on improving medical service and public health level to cope with the deepening of the aging level.