Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Solvency Of Basic Pension Insurance Funds

Generally speaking,population aging is a process in which the proportion of the elderly in the total population in the society is constantly increasing.The 21 st century is a critical period for the transformation of the population structure.Aging is an inevitable social phenomenon that accompanies economic and social development.The deepening of aging will have a significant impact on all aspects of economic and social development,especially closely related to the elderly population.Basic pension insurance system.Although the population of Zhejiang Province is relatively mobile,according to the statistical bulletin,the population of Zhejiang Province aged 65 years and above reached8.307 million in 2019,accounting for 14.2% of the permanent population,which has exceeded the 14% deep aging line.Ranked fifth in the country.In addition,as of the end of 2019,the income of the basic pension insurance fund for enterprise employees was298.288 billion yuan,and the fund expenditure was 317.525 billion yuan.The annual revenue and expenditure gap was as high as 19.237 billion yuan,and the payment risk of the fund increased sharply.Some scholars have used actuarial models to predict the income and expenditure gap of the basic pension insurance fund in Zhejiang Province,and they can find that by 2025 the cumulative balance of the fund will be exhausted and a cumulative deficit will begin to appear.In general,although Zhejiang’s economy is relatively developed,the payment of basic pension funds is still facing continuous pressure caused by the deepening of the aging population.Based on this realistic background,this paper makes a theoretical and empirical analysis of the aging population of Zhejiang Province and solvency of the basic pension insurance fund.By combing and summarizing the existing research,this article has a more comprehensive and clear understanding of the internal connection between population aging and basic pension insurance.On this basis,this article attempts to explore the extent of the impact of the aging population in Zhejiang Province on the solvency of the basic pension insurance fund.First,analyze the characteristics of Zhejiang’s population aging and compare it with the national average level,which will help us grasp the characteristics of Zhejiang Province as a whole.Considering that the policy changes of the basic pension insurance fund will have an impact on the fund’s participation in the fund,the income and expenditure profile,so the basic pension insurance policy evolution will be outlined first,and then the fund’s participation and income and expenditure will be analyzed in detail.Based on the analysis of typical facts and characteristics of population aging and basic pension insurance,this article believes that population aging will affect the supporting capacity of the fund from both the income and expenditure ends.Subsequently,this article carried out an empirical analysis on the aging of Zhejiang Province and the solvency of funds,and conducted a robustness test and regional heterogeneity analysis.This article also verified the aging of the population through a separate regression analysis on the fund income and expenditure ends.The mechanism of influence of chemistry on the fund’s solvency.Finally,the conclusion and policy recommendations of this article.In the research,the main conclusions drawn in this article are as follows: First,the population aging in Zhejiang Province presents the characteristics of large-scale elderly population,rapid growth of the elderly,and uneven regional development.Second,the increase in the number of insured persons in Zhejiang Province is mainly caused by the increase in retirees,and with the decrease in the ratio of on-the-job insurance and the increase in the ratio of retirement,the fund’s payment pressure is increasing.Third,the solvency of the Zhejiang Basic Pension Insurance Fund has declined and the sustainability of the fund has weakened.Fourth,the aging of the population has had a significant negative impact on the solvency of the basic pension insurance fund,and after replacing the explained variables and adding missing variables,the conclusions are still robust.Fifth,the impact of population aging on fund solvency varies significantly in different regions.For more developed regions,aging will have a significant negative impact on fund solvency,while in less developed regions,the impact will be less Not obvious.Sixth,the aging of the population will have a negative impact on the income of the fund and a positive impact on the expenditure of the fund.Under the combined effect of the two,the fund’s supporting capacity will be reduced.Based on the above research,this article believes that in an aging society,if the basic pension insurance fund can be issued sustainably,policies should be formulated from the perspectives of "increasing revenue" and "cutting expenditure".In terms of open source,it mainly includes vigorously developing the economy,fully liberalizing the second child,increasing the proportion of land transfer fees,and doing a good job in maintaining and increasing the value of funds.In terms of reducing expenditure,it mainly includes accelerating the implementation of the delayed retirement policy,gradually increasing the pension receiving standard,and increasing the social participation of the elderly.For areas with more developed economies,the qualifications for enterprise employee pension insurance should be strictly controlled,and the government should try to avoid using pension insurance benefits as a policy tool.