| Although the fertility policy has been adjusted and relaxed several times,the fertility desire of residents is slightly low,especially in areas with high educational background,high income and high intergenerational mobility.Are these factors inhibiting fertility desire?Previous studies have focused on the impact of intergenerational mobility on fertility intention from the micro-individual level.However,intergenerational mobility is often a general optimistic or pessimistic expectation for individuals.Therefore,it is more realistic to explore the impact of intergenerational mobility on fertility intention from the macro-level.Empirical tests based on China Family Panel Studies(CFPS2014)and Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS2015)show that:(1)Intergenerational mobility has a significant inverted U-shaped effect on the fertility intention of residents.Higher intergenerational mobility is beneficial to improving the fertility intention of individuals,but excessive intergenerational mobility is the opposite.It will inhibit the individual’s desire for reproduction.The above conclusion is still valid after the robustness test.(2)The impact of intergenerational mobility on the fertility intention of residents is positive in the central and western regions,but negative in the eastern regions;positive in the low-income groups,and negative in the high-income groups.According to the regression results of gender groups,the regression coefficients of income to male fertility intention are significantly negative,but the effect on female fertility intention is not significant;married factors can significantly improve the fertility intention of female groups,while the effect in male groups is not significant;according to the regression results of different age groups,the fertility intention of young women is significantly lower than that of men,In the elderly group,women’s fertility intention is higher than men’s;the higher the income of the young group is,the higher the fertility intention is,the opposite is true for the elderly group.Among the middle-aged and old people,the fertility willingness of urban and rural residents is lower than that of rural residents.According to the regression results of different household registration types,the regression coefficient of personal income to fertility intention is significantly positive in rural samples,but significantly negative in urban samples.(3)The improvement of regional intergenerational mobility can improve residents’ fertility intention by reducing the cost of education investment,and restrain residents’ fertility intention by reducing the rate of return on education.Higher intergenerational mobility provides more development opportunities for young people,making them more hopeful to achieve their personal goals in a short period of time,generate a strong sense of self-identity,and then improve their fertility willingness. |
