Sensitivity Analysis Of Population Agingng To Long-term Care Insurance Payment Rate

The "silver hair wave" struck,the aging of the social population increased,and the burden of supporting the elderly increased.The proportion of elderly disabled people in the elderly group becomes larger,the contradiction between the increase in longterm care needs and the current social security system to be improved is intensified,and the problem of long-term care for disabled elderly needs to be resolved urgently.On the one hand,the article analyzes the financial supply capacity of the caregivers of the disabled elderly,hoping to enlighten the development of a reasonable long-term care insurance supplier’s main business plan and financing model,and then build a sustainable long-term care insurance model to improve China’s social security system.On the other hand,in the context of the increasing ageing of the social population and the expansion of long-term care needs of disabled elderly people,this paper analyzes how the development trend of China’s long-term care insurance contribution rate may change,and formulates and improves relevant policies based on the research results to Alleviate the impact of population aging on the contribution rate of long-term care insurance.First,based on certain assumptions,the financial affordability of long-term care insurance for individuals,families,and governments is calculated,and then the actuarial model is established to calculate the contribution rates of long-term care commercial insurance and social insurance.Finally,use this as a parameter to build a computable general equilibrium model,and add a social welfare function to the model structure to obtain the long-term care insurance commercial insurance contribution rate and social insurance contribution rate with respect to the resident savings rate and population growth rate equations when the competition is balanced.In addition,this paper analyzes the future impact of China’s population aging on the contribution rate of long-term care insurance based on the data of the United Nations on China’s population changes from 2015 to 2050.At the end of the article,after studying the two-child policy,China’s population size structure has changed,that is,the population growth rate and the elderly dependency ratio will change,and then get the impact on the long-term care insurance commercial insurance and social insurance contribution rate.It was found that the degree of population aging continues to deepen(in this article,the population growth rate continues to decline,and the elderly dependency ratio continues to increase).The sensitivity coefficients of the long-term care insurance brought are different.This shows that the elderly dependency ratio is in different periods.The sensitivity of the long-term care insurance contribution rate varies accordingly.Among them,when the elderly dependency ratio is 13.11,the population growth rate drops from 17.1% to 1.41%,the long-term care insurance commercial insurance contribution rate has increased by 13.039 times,and the social insurance contribution rate has increased by 0.799%;the elderly dependency ratio and long-term care business The sensitivity coefficients of insurance and social insurance have a positive change relationship,which are about 0.45 and 0.4 respectively,that is,for each increase of the elderly dependency ratio by 1%,the long-term care insurance commercial insurance contribution rate increases by about 0.45%,and the social insurance contribution rate increases by about 0.4% The population growth rate is weakly sensitive to long-term care commercial insurance and social insurance,and has a reverse change relationship.For every 10% decrease in the population growth rate,the long-term care commercial insurance contribution rate increases by 0.0083%,and the long-term care social insurance contribution rate Increase by 0.00718%.Based on the 2012 forecast data from the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs on China ’s future demographic changes,China ’s elderly population dependency ratio will reach 39.002% by 2050,and the population size will also show negative growth.Long-term care commercial insurance and social insurance contribution rates They are 14.534% and 2.426% respectively.In 2015,China began to gradually implement a comprehensive two-child policy.The aging of our population has been eased,but the long-term care insurance contribution rate continues to rise.In 2025,the commercial insurance contribution rate of long-term care insurance is 1.857%,the social insurance contribution rate is 0.499%,and the total contribution of long-term care insurance accounts for 2.356% of wages;but by 2040,the total contribution rate of long-term care insurance has reached 12.595 %(Including commercial insurance contribution rate of 10.766% and social insurance contribution rate of 1.829%).Based on this,this article proposes: First,we must establish a long-term care insurance system led by the government and coordinated by the market,hoping that the government can coordinate with all the parties to achieve a win-win situation,make overall plans,and use resources reasonably.The second is that the government can constantly improve relevant population policies and work together to control the aging process from various angles.The third,If you want to establish a sustainable long-term care insurance,you can rationalize the operation plan of the fund;ensure the income of the fund and the living standards of the disabled elderly,and appropriately open source and reduce expenditure;choose more reasonable measures and improve the characteristics of the region ’s age and region.Related system construction of longterm care insurance.