The Study On The Impact Of Political Risks In RCEP Member Countries On China’s OFDI

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement（RCEP）covers more than 3 billion people and its member countries account for more than 30% of global GDP,the Regulations on investment access and liberalization and facilitation are conducive to optimizing the investment environment of the host country,lowering the investment threshold of the host country and raising the level of East Asian economic cooperation integration.At the same time,however,due to the complex and changeable geopolitical relations in the world today,as well as the large differences in the level of economic development of RCEP member countries,therefore,mutual investment among RCEP member countries will undoubtedly face many political and economic risks.Due to the limitation of research space,therefore,the political risks and impacts of OFDI from China to other member countries are discussed systematically,so as to Tossing out a brick to get a jade gem China’s investment cooperation with RDI partner countries.The study finds that OFDI in RCEP member countries has four distinct characteristics:first,the overall scale of investment is expanding,but the growth rate is gradually slowing down;second,the distribution of investment is uneven;and third,the investment industry is concentrated,and the industrial level is not high;fourth,the investment performance fluctuation is big,and the level is low.After measuring the political risk of RCEP member countries,we find that Myanmar,Laos and Vietnam have the highest political risk,and the lowest political risk is New Zealand,followed by Singapore and Australia.Comparing countries’ political risks in 2020 with those in 2006,Cambodia and Thailand showed the greatest improvement in political risks.In order to further explore the effect of political risk on OFDI in China,a fixed-effect regression analysis was carried out.It finds that for each 1%increase of political risk in RCEP member countries,China’s OFDI stock would decrease by5.7% Among the three sub-indexes of political risk（expropriation risk,transfer risk and political violence risk）,OFDI of Chinese Enterprises is more vulnerable to transfer risk and political violence risk.In this regard,the government at all levels proposed to establish a scientific and efficient political risk assessment system,guide enterprises to expand the field of foreign investment,promote PPP mode of investment and other aspects of the proposal to strengthen market research for relevant enterprises,localization and diversification of the business,consciously assume social responsibility and other aspects of the proposal.