Study On Emergency Response Decision Considering The Influence Of Rumor

After the occurrence of an emergency,there may be a mismatch between the preventive measures taken in advance and the actual development state of the emergency.Combined with the characteristics of the emergency itself,such as suddenness,complexity and high deformability,rumors can be easily induced in the society and the Internet.With the rapid development of network communication technology,once the rumor is induced,if there is no timely and efficient response measures,it will quickly spread in a large range on the network.These rumors,which can spread all over the country in a short time,not only easily shake the psychological state of people in areas where emergencies occur,but also disturb the normal social stability and order in other areas,and even make people doubt the emergency response ability of relevant government departments,which has a serious impact on the credibility of government departments.In this situation,when facing the emergency response decision,the influence of rumor phenomenon on the program decision should be considered simultaneously.Considering that rumor propagation has stages,this paper proposes a two-stage and multi-agent scheme selection method.Firstly,based on the prospect theory,the optimal rumour response measures under different combinations of preventive measures and different emergency scenarios are determined.According to the evaluation values given by decision-makers under different event scenario states for different schemes under uncertain environment,the prospect value is introduced to rank the overall emergency measures.Then based on the comprehensive prospect value,the regret value of different event scenarios under different prevention schemes was calculated.Regret value reflects decision makers’ perception of regret after the actual occurrence of an emergency when they adopt a preventive plan.Most decision makers’ perception of regret is regret avoidance,so its maximum value represents the decision makers’ actual regret value for each preventive plan.Under the condition of state probability,the minimum and maximum regret values of each preventive plan are calculated,which can be used as the final ranking basis for emergency response decisions considering the influence of rumors.Finally,an example is given to verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method.Considering the disorderly and subjective nature of rumor propagation,rumors often break out before the event itself in reality,and sometimes even the influence brought by rumors exceeds the emergency itself.In this case,the response to the rumor phenomenon often cannot be delayed after the initial emergency response to the emergency,but the urgency and time point of the rumor response should be raised to the same or similar status as the emergency response to the emergency.First decision attribute evaluation matrix is given based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets,and then respectively and settlement plans about emergencies and rumor phenomenon is the perception of the utility,at the same time introduce the rumor risk coefficient to calculate weight of the emergencies and rumor phenomenon index,the final solution is obtained by calculating the comprehensive utility of,on the basis of ranking selection for decision.