Research On The Key Risk Chain Of Local Governments In Chinese PPP Projects

PPP(public private partnership,government and social capital cooperation)mode has been widely used in China’s public infrastructure construction,which has unique advantages in alleviating local government financial problems,solving local government financing problems,and promoting regional economic development.However,due to the characteristics of large investment,long construction and operation cycle of PPP projects,a series of uncertain factors may appear in the operation process of PPP projects.In addition,due to the imperfect management of government departments,PPP projects can not give full play to their advantages in partner cooperation and resource optimization,resulting in the failure of PPP projects to be completed smoothly,and then affecting the local governments The credibility and credibility of the local government.PPP project risk research is a hot topic at present.Effective government risk management is of great significance for the long-term development of PPP projects.Therefore,this paper takes the local government of PPP project as the research object,explores the government risk factors of PPP project,the key risk chain of risk transmission,and takes effective risk response measures,which is of great theoretical and practical significance for improving the risk management level of local government in the process of participating in PPP project and giving full play to the advantages of PPP project construction and operation.This paper uses literature research method,case study method,questionnaire survey method,structural equation model and other research methods to study the key risk chain and risk response of local government of PPP project.The main research contents are as follows:First of all,this paper explores the concepts of PPP project,risk,PPP project risk and PPP project local government risk,clarifies the starting point and research scope of this paper,and based on the analysis of accident causing theory,public goods theory and risk chain theory,defines the logical framework of PPP project local government risk transmission.Secondly,through literature analysis and case study,the risk factors of local government of PPP projects are identified,and the key risk factors are screened out by expert evaluation.Combined with the risk chain theory,the risk source,risk intermediary and key factors of risk events of local government risk of PPP project are analyzed,and the local government risk chain of China’s PPP project is constructed.Then,the quantitative research method of structural equation model is used to conduct an empirical study on the risk transmission of local governments in PPP projects.Through the simulation results of the model,the key risk chains of local governments in PPP projects are identified and analyzed,and on this basis,suggestions for risk response are put forward.Through the research logic,the following conclusions are drawn:The essence of the risk transmission process of local government in PPP project is the complete causal chain of risk source,risk intermediary,risk event and risk result,and the core of risk prevention is to break the chain.In this paper,five types of risk sources,two types of risk intermediary,one type of risk event and risk result are identified,and 10 risk chains are established for the above different risk categories.Through quantitative analysis,nine key risk chains including government factor,project process risk,project failure and government risk loss are identified,and the measures and suggestions for blocking the key chain are put forward,which has important reference and guiding significance for local governments to manage PPP projects.