| China has a vast territory and a large population.Natural disasters in China have various kinds,high frequency,large magnitude and wide impact.In 2019 alone,a total of 130 million people were affected by various natural disasters,909 people were killed or missing,126 thousand houses collapsed,and 19256.9 thousand hectares of crops were damaged,with direct economic losses of 327.09 billion yuan.Various natural disasters destroy the basic living conditions of the people and seriously impact the development of the national economy.Disaster prevention,reduction and relief work are related to the safety of people’s lives and property,and is of great significance to the harmony and stability of the society.Although the long-term successful experience of fighting against disasters has guided the continuous optimization of China’s disaster relief system,in the complex and severe disaster situation in China,the disaster relief mechanism system still needs to be improved.In 2016,the "Instructional Advice of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting the System Reform of Disaster Prevention,Mitigation and Relief Mechanism" systematically summarized the main problems existing in China’s disaster relief mechanism and proposed to "adhere to the guiding of the party committee,the leadership of the government,the extensive participation of social forces and the market mechanism" as an important basic principle of reform.However,how to realize the above disaster relief mode in the practice of emergency rescue?Revealing the evolution path,key conditions and main factors of my country’s disaster relief system reform from a theoretical perspective is one of the major issues that urgently need to be resolved in current emergency management practice and theoretical research.This article attempts to use the evolutionary game method to study the co-evolution path of China’s disaster relief system reform from the aspects of social force participation and market participation.The main way of market participation is to implement the catastrophe insurance system.The specific research content includes the following two parts:Part one:This paper summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of two disaster relief models.On this basis,the evolutionary game model is constructed to analyze the equilibrium conditions and key influencing factors for the formation of the"government-leading and social-involvement" model.The research shows that the cooperative rescue effect and the sustained stages of disasters relief are the two key factors that determine the evolution of disaster relief model.In the process of institutional evolution from the traditional government-leading disaster relief mode to the ideal "government-leading and social-involvement" mode.there are several evolutionary paths.such as coordinated game of "double-track system" or periodic solution.Unilaterally relying on the government to promote the reform of the disaster relief system will fall into the long-term coexistence of the old and new systems with the solidified sector interests,thus we need to encourage social forces to participate in the disaster relief to force the system reform.Moreover,unilateral reliance on enterprises to undertake social responsibility for spontaneous rescue will lead to the lack of coordination and lead to periodic reciprocating fluctuations,thus the reform of the disaster relief system must adhere to the leading role of the government.With the development from the stage of emergency rescue to transitional resettlement and post-disaster reconstruction.the mode of disaster relief needs to be gradually transformed into that of "government-leading and social-involvement".Part two:This paper uses the two indicators of disaster probability and disaster magnitude to describe the characteristics of disaster risk distribution.and uses the evolutionary game analysis method to study the application scope of three catastrophe insurance models(fully private,fully public,and public-private insurance systems)and two disaster reduction measures(engineering defense and catastrophe insurance)in different disaster risk areas in China.We found that the catastrophe insurance system should be implemented according to the disaster risk distribution of the regions respectively.In the areas with low frequency and high magnitude,the"public-private" catastrophe insurance system should be carried out;in areas with low frequency and low magnitude,fully private catastrophe insurance system should be carried out;in the disaster-prone areas with high frequency,the government should increase the investment in engineering defense instead of supporting the catastrophe insurance,and insurance companies should not operate catastrophe insurance.In addition,it is found through case analysis that enhancing the willingness to pay for catastrophe insurance of the masses helps to promote the formation of fully private catastrophe insurance system.The innovation of this article is mainly embodied in the first theoretical demonstration of the multiple evolutionary paths of the disaster relief system reform"government-led,social forces and market mechanism participation" and the coordination of supporting policies.This paper uses the two indicators of disaster probability and disaster magnitude to describe the distribution characteristics of disaster risk and takes them into consideration in the choice of catastrophe insurance system.This article also considers the trade-off between the government’s investment in engineering disaster reduction and supporting catastrophe insurance,and tries to find a catastrophe insurance system suitable for different regions.In addition,from the perspective of research methods,this paper applies the evolutionary game theory to the comparative analysis of different disaster relief systems for the first time.This article only considers the practical path of "improving social forces and market participation mechanisms" in the reform of our national defense disaster reduction and relief mechanism,and does not consider other requirements proposed in the document.In the future,we can do more comprehensive research on my country’s emergency response system reform and enhance the research results Realistic guiding significance.At the same time,the article characterizes the distribution of disaster risk according to the probability and magnitude of disaster,but does not consider the type of disaster.Finally,with the development and progress of science and technology,building a disaster management database can help discover more characteristics and laws of natural disasters,and can combine relevant statistical data to enhance the applicability and persuasiveness of case analysis. |
