The Analysis Of Trump Administration’s Taiwan Policy Adjustments And The Influencing Factors

The Taiwan question has always been the most important and sensitive factor in Sino-US relations.Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States,three joint Sino-US communiqués have been signed and issued.The "One China policy" has been established.Since then,the basic framework and fundamental principles of US exchanges with Taiwan have also been established.Since then,the US’s Taiwan policy has undergone minor adjustments during the presidency,but rarely has it changed significantly.During his term in office,Trump showed a tough attitude towards China,and repeatedly questioned the "One China policy" in public.This shakes the basic consensus between China and the United States,intensifies the tension between China and the United States,and returns to the "One China Policy".He also repeatedly played "Taiwan cards" in the field of politics,diplomacy,economy,military,and non-traditional security.The US government’s Taiwan policy is formed under the combined influence of three factors: the international system,domestic society,and individual leaders.The Taiwan policy formulated by the Trump administration is also under the broad framework of the Indo-Pacific strategy and Sino-US relations.It has been affected by a series of factors from the US domestic decision-making team,Congress,interest groups,think tanks,and cross-strait relations.American leaders,Trump’s personal traits and policy preferences have,to a certain extent,hindered the direction of US policy toward Taiwan.Compared with the Obama administration,the balance of the Trump administration ’s Taiwan policy is more pro-Taiwan.This is due to factors such as the current situation of Sino-US competition over cooperation,domestic pro-Taiwan power,and worsening cross-strait relations.Comprehensive decision.It is foreseeable that in the future,Trump will continue to flexibly use the "Taiwan card" on the basis of his verbal commitment to the "One China Policy",use Taiwan as a strategic pawn to strengthen the existence of the Indian Pacific,and hinder China’s peaceful development.In this regard,we should maintain strategic focus and adhere to the bottom line thinking.While seeking cooperation,we should enhance our competitive strength and make comprehensive preparations to promote cross-strait reunification.This article is divided into four chapters in addition to the introduction.The first chapter is a rough overview of the historical evolution of US policy toward Taiwan since the founding of the People’s Republic of China.On this basis,it also briefly analyzes the characteristics and motivations of the continuous evolution of the US government ’s Taiwan policy,and provides inspiration and clues for studying the current Trump administration ’s Taiwan policy.The second chapter describes three major ups and downs in Trump’s perception of the Taiwan question.The first is the tentative phase in time to elect.As a businessman who has just entered the core political circle of Washington,Trump first demonstrated his professional characteristics of businessman’s bargaining and constantly tested the bottom line,talked about the transaction value of the "One China policy",while sending the wrong message to the Taiwan Green Party,it has also aroused strong dissatisfaction from China and other countries.After some temptations and facing the strong pressure from domestic and foreign countries,Trump understood the sensitivity of the Taiwan question to China,and immediately changed his strategy,acknowledged the "one China policy",and cooled down the Taiwan question.However,in the face of the escalating trade frictions between China and the United States,and the intensified form of competition among major powers,Trump has again seen the value of the "Taiwan card" and successively introduced Taiwan-related act in an attempt to gradually empty the "One China Policy".At the same time,it has also strengthened cooperation with Taiwan in various fields such as politics,diplomacy,economy,military,and non-traditional security to enhance US-Taiwan relations.In the third chapter,this article mainly analyzes the factors influencing the trump government makes Taiwan policy through the analytic hierarchy process.At the system level,the US’s Taiwan policy is subordinate to the overall national strategy and the Indo-Pacific strategy which base on the principle of "America First." At the same time,the involvement of Asian allies such as Japan and Australia in the Taiwan question has also affected the US’s Taiwan policy to a certain extent.At the national level,influential factors in the United States include the decision-making team led by hawk politicians,the pro-Taiwan congress,military interest groups,and think tanks.The influential factors in China are mainly the cross-strait relations that the United States is concerned about and the Cai Yingwen authorities’ lobbying work on the United States.At the leadership level,Trump’s personal governing style and policy preferences are also important factors influencing Taiwan policy.Based on the previous research,in the final chapter of this article,under the influence of various factors,the United States’ positioning and appeals to Taiwan are analyzed.The analysis of Trump’s future positioning of Taiwan’s policy and the new face of US-Taiwan relations in the 2020 election to further explore China’s response strategies.I believes that first of all,it is necessary to adhere to the road of peaceful development,continue to maintain high-quality economic growth,improve naval strength,and strengthen cultural soft power.Second,we must promote the full and deep integration of economies between the mainland and Taiwan,strengthen cultural exchanges between the two sides of the strait,and effectively combat the "Taiwan independence separatist forces.Finally,it is necessary to insist on equal emphasis on cooperation and competition with the United States,seeking cooperation in Sino-US bilateral relations and global issues actively,striving to eliminate prejudice and misunderstanding,and establishing strategic mutual trust.At the same time,it will face competition and challenges,adhere to the core national interests,and show China’s determination to maintain sovereignty to the world.