Research On Carrying Capacity Evaluation Of Chongqing Elderly Care Service

In the process of China’s overall construction and realization of a well-off society,politics,economy,culture and other aspects have achieved welcome results,but at the same time,the continuous deepening of the aging population has also brought great challenges to the orderly development of society.Compared with the social development process of getting rich before getting old in foreign countries,China is now in a state of getting old before getting rich,and it is necessary to vigorously develop the economy while taking into account humanistic construction.The problem of urban old-age care is also an important part of urban humanistic construction.At present,the supply of many old-age care services in cities shows the characteristics with "limited resources and low service quality",the research on the carrying capacity of the old-age service not only deepens the reform on the supply side,but also allows limited resources to radiate more people and enhance the modernization level of the city.This article first describes the relevant concepts and basic theories of the content and carrying capacity of the elderly care service,and then identifies and defines the carrying factors and influencing factors of the carrying capacity of the elderly care service through literature research methods,combined with the previous evaluation index system of old-age care services in various places,this paper builds an evaluation index system for the carrying capacity of old-age services in this paper,including four criteria layers and 25 index factors.After that,Chongqing’s pension service development data from 2009 to 2018 was selected as the basis for the empirical analysis in this paper,and the comprehensive objective weighting method of entropy weight method and coefficient of variation method was used to study and analyze the carrying capacity of Chongqing’s pension service.The main contents of the research includes:analysis of Chongqing’s pension service capacity from 2009 to 2018,identification of obstacle factors for Chongqing’s pension service capacity and prediction of Chongqing’s pension service capacity in 2025.Studies have shown that the carrying capacity of Chongqing’s pension service has gone from low to high,and the carrying level has been significantly improved.In the process of identifying the barriers to the carrying capacity of the aged services,the research has been carried out from two aspects: the research time series and the frequency of occurrence.Among them,starting from the research time series,in the early stage of the study,the obstacles were mainly concentrated in government security and economic development.At this time,the carrying capacity of old-age services increased with the decline of these two obstacles.With the development of various aspects,in the later period of the study,the obstacles are mainly concentrated in the social humanities and environmental facilities.However,due to its small weight,the impact on the carrying status of the elderly care service is limited,therefore,Chongqing’s elderly care service is still showing an upward trend.Judging from the frequency of occurrence,the main obstacles are concentrated in the old-age dependency ratio,natural population growth rate,the urbanization rate of the elderly population,the proportion of the number of non-domestic pensioners,and the proportion of days of air quality compliance.Afterwards,by constructing the grey prediction model GM(1,1),the carrying capacity of Chongqing’s pension service in2025 was predicted,and it was found that the elderly care service in Chongqing would mainly rely on the improvement of social humanities and environmental facilities to improve the carrying capacity.In light of the above analysis results,corresponding suggestions and measures to improve the carrying capacity of Chongqing’s pension service are put forward.