| The seventh census data show the continuous increase of the scale of China’s floating population,with the floating population increasing by 70% over the past decade,gathering in riverside,coastal cities and inland urban areas.The population of major urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration has increased rapidly and the degree of agglomeration has increased.It worth noting that in addition to the traditional areas（along the river and the coast）,the inland urban areas have become new areas receiving population inflow.Then has China entered a new situation where coexist population flow and return? Especially in the traditional population outflow areas in the central and western regions,what is the situation of population backflow there,and which areas have the potential to lead population backflow? Sichuan province,as a province of traditional outflow of population in western China,what is the return status and intention of the population? Depending on the methods of investigation and interview,combining the quantitative and qualitative analysis,comparative analysis accompanied with induction and summary,the sample counties are selected through the spatial layout of the backflow willingness of the migration in Sichuan Province in 2017 in this paper,conducting the study pointed to the present situation of population returning and the intention of nonreturning population as well as the influencing factors in several typical counties.The return status,intention and crucial influencing factors of the migrants in the study area are revealed,proposing the corresponding reflection and enlightenment.First of all,using the 2017 China floating population dynamic monitoring survey data（CMDS）of the National Health and Family Planning Commission,we explore the spatial pattern of return migration intention in Sichuan Province in 2017 by using spatial analysis methods such as global Moran index,local Moran index and hot spot analysis.Based on the spatial analysis,we select the sample and conduct an investigation.Secondly,by using the survey data,we not only analyze the characteristics of the population who have return to hometown,but also discuss the return intention of migrants.Then comprehensive considering the individual,family,socioeconomic and regional factors,we use binary and multiple logistic regression models to analyze the influencing factors.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）In 2017,the return intention of migration in Sichuan Province is obviously high in the east and low in the west,with the northeast of Sichuan and the Chengdu Plain being hot spots.There exhibits a significant positive while weak local spatial autocorrelation in the return intentions of each county,generally displaying a positive spatial agglomeration relationship;In terms of the distance from Chengdu,the return intention is higher in counties within 1 hour and 3 hours from the center of Chengdu.The comparison between the return intention in 2017 and the current situation of return mainly emerges as three types: Langzhong City and Nanbu county are "low-low" type,meaning the low return intention in 2017 and the proportion of returning population was low at present;Pengzhou City and Beichuan County exhibits the characteristics of "low-high",that is,the return intention of migrants is low in 2017,and opposite at present;Wenjiang District and Santai County are characterized by "high-high",meaning the intention of returning was high in2017,and the proportion of returning population was also high.（2）Among the returned population,（1）age,marital status and whether having old people or children in the family,as well as the education level and annual family income and whether self-construction or house purchase outside the outflow area are closely related to the migration return.In addition,whether paying attention to home policies also affects,as there are more returnees showing concern about home policies.（2）There are differences in the spatial choice of employment and residence of returnees,which are both related to the distance from Chengdu.In districts and counties close to Chengdu,the employment and residence of returnees are concentrated in villages and towns and rural areas;Those far away from Chengdu are more employed in the counties and towns,and live in rural areas and counties,which is closely related to the economic development of the outflow area.（3）The status of return migration is mainly affected by gender,age,education level,annual family income,housing area at home,whether to build or buy houses outside the outflow area,as well as whether to concern home policies.In addition,among the regional factors,the distance from the outflow place to Chengdu,GDP and public property expenditure produce a significant impact on the return situation.（3）Among the migrants,the overall return intention in the future is low,but high in counties close to Chengdu is in space.（1）Age and marital status,as two important aspects of the life cycle,is closely related to the return intention.The education level and annual family income in livelihood capital,and whether self-construction or house purchase outside the outflow area in social integration is closely related to the backflow willingness;At the same time,the variation of occupation type and personal income also influence,with the more proportion of migration engaged in high-end occupations than returnees,as migrants with reduced personal income are more willing to return.（2）In terms of the spatial choice of returning places,the farther away from Chengdu,the lower proportion of return to rural areas,which is consistent with the choice of employment places.（3）The backflow willingness is significantly affected by factors of age,education level,the nature of household registration,marital status,annual family income,family education expenditure and income changes.In addition,the distance between the outflow and Chengdu also produces a significant impact on the return intention.（4）For individuals and families,they are supposed to elevate the income levels through various channels,improving the settlement capability of backflow population in their hometown,and enhancing the anti-risk capacity of non-backflow population in the inflow place.In addition,it is recommended to fully utilize the waste heat of the elderly with energy and physical strength in appropriate way.For the outflow areas,in view of some counties with strong comprehensive strength such as Wenjiang and Pengzhou,it is required to modify the housing system of the outflow areas and encourage the willingness to buy houses in the outflow areas for returned migration.Besides,the policy publicity should be strengthened through various channels,attracting population return fully depending on their existing advantages.For some counties with weak comprehensive strength such as Beichuan,Santai,Langzhong and Nanbu,it is not recommended to guide the return of migrants on a large scale,but attempt to achieve a certain balance between urbanization,new rural construction and guiding rural labor force to go out for occupation transfer.The advantage of the driving role of Chengdu in the economic development should be fully applied to elevate the comprehensive development level of all counties,and attract the return population to achieve nearby urbanization;In addition,while promoting the steady development of rural areas,the labor force also requires to be reasonably guided to go out for occupation transfer. |
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