A Study On The Valuation Of Cultural Creative Enterprises Based On Normal Fuzzy Real Option Model

With the rise of the creative economy and knowledge economy,the cultural industry has gradually begun to transform into the creative industry.At the same time,various national supportive policies have been issued continuously,providing strategic guidance for the development of the cultural and creative industry,promoting the continuous growth of the contribution rate of the cultural and creative industry to the national economy,and accelerating the emergence of new forms of industry.Drived by this background,property rights transactions,mergers and acquisitions,investment and financing among enterprises are becoming more and more active,followed by more and more asset evaluation behaviors for cultural and creative enterprises.Difference between traditional production enterprise,the cultural creative enterprises has the light assets,the value of high uncertainty and high risk project investment and high value-added features such as research and development,makes the evaluation process generally bottlenecks,the use of traditional static evaluation methods too rigid,unable to measure the uncertainty of enterprise internal dynamic factors,ignore the investment opportunities and management flexibility,which reduces the evaluation value accuracy,so according to the nature of the enterprise to choose scientific and reasonable evaluation method,to reduce the uncertainty of project investment,enhance the level of investors’ decision-making,It has significant theoretical and practical significance to further promote the vigorous development of China’s cultural and creative industry.Based on cultural creative enterprises as the main body,on the basis of the existing entity value and potential option value,with real options and is based on normal fuzzy mathematics theory,first of all related literature both at home and abroad to comb and summarize the research background,analysis of cultural creativity research and application of real option model for the evaluation of enterprise value of the enterprise value evaluation of the status quo,then from the enterprise growth theory and the real option theory to build the related theoretical basis,and to shed light on the current situation of the development of cultural creative industry,the characteristics of cultural creative enterprises plane analysis,the factors affecting the value of cultural creative enterprises,The applicability of traditional valuation method and real option method is compared to further determine the value composition of cultural and creative enterprises.In this paper,we use cash flow discount method to evaluate the value of the existing entity.Based on the normal fuzzy theory and real option method,the normal fuzzy real option method is derived to evaluate the potential option value,and the overall value of the enterprise is obtained after the integration of the two methods.By expounding the meaning and determination method of the relevant parameters in the model,the feasibility of the evaluation model is ensured.Finally,the empirical research of Perfect World Company is carried out,and the fuzzy interval of enterprise value of Perfect World Company is calculated.The sensitivity analysis is used,and the calculated result is compared with the evaluation result of trapezoidal fuzzy real option and the stock price in the longitudinal period,so as to further verify the rationality of the evaluation result.The research results show that the value of the chips are cultural and creative enterprise is made of the existing entity value and potential value,at present in enterprise value assessment,does not yet exist two kinds of factors can be considered at the same time,evaluation method,so in this paper,based on the two evaluation methods to construct evaluation model,the traditional free cash flow discount model combined with a real option model,makes the overall value of integration after more close to the market value,and normal fuzzy theory was introduced at the same time,the enterprise value of the evaluation results by a single "dot" value for the development of a certain "interval",It effectively solves the problem of value fluctuation caused by inaccurate data.This approach provides a reasonable investment reference range for enterprise decision makers,provides a new idea for enterprise value assessment in high uncertainty industries,and provides a more practical evaluation path for the subsequent value assessment of similar types of enterprises.