The Influence Of Perceived Probability In Moral Dilemma On Different Types Of Moral Judgment

In real life,many moral dilemmas contain a lot of uncertainties.In recent years,research have found a fact that certainty(uncertainty)is not only a control variable,but also a key variable to explain the moral dilemma(Christensen & Gomila,2012).This study starts with probability,the expression of uncertainty,and focuses on the moral dilemma.It attempts to reinterpret the moral judgment in moral dilemma from the perspective of Theory of Dyadic Morality(TDM,Schein & Gray,2017): Different from the view that different choices in moral dilemmas are simply equivalent to the reasoning method that recognizes utilitarianism or deontology(Greene,Sommerville,Nystrom,Darley,& Cohen,2001;Haidt,2001),TDM suggests that each moral choice in moral dilemmas may activate the three-factor template of perceived harm,which makes people feel immoral.Therefore,choices in moral dilemmas reflect individual preferences rather than moral level.Secondly,relevant research shows that different details or principles in moral dilemmas will convey different possible information.People will not accept all the results stipulated in dilemmas,but will generate different intuitive probabilities according to their own experiences.This probability estimation is likely to be confused with the past explanations for the differences in dilemmas(Ryazanov,Knutsen,Rickless,Christenfeld,& Nelson,2018;Shou & Song,2017).Analogous to TDM’s concept of perceived harm,this intuitive probability can be called perceived probability,because it is an intuitive and continuous perception.Perceived probability affects judgment of morality with the characteristics of utilitarian thinking,that is,subjects generally have a tendency to pursue the minimization of negative results(Shou & Song,2015,2017).At the same time,the research of judgment type shows that people may have two different standards of ideality and reality when making judgment of morality,which come from different psychological processes.Previous studies have found that the judgment of appropriateness is more affected by uncertainty than judgment of morality(Kortenkamp & Moore,2014).This shows that the perceived probability may be more sensitive to the appropriate type of moral judgment,because their psychological processes are more similar.To sum up,it can be speculated that people in moral dilemma will not only activate their sensitivity to moral violation due to perceived harm,but also carry out unconscious reasoning calculation,intuitively avoiding the worst result,that is,there is a tendency to stay away from harm or minimize harm.Perceived probability mainly affects the appropriateness of moral judgment rather than morality.It is different from perceived harm,but it shapes people’s moral preference in moral dilemma.Finally,evidence from neurobasic research shows that there should be a more basic general mechanism behind moral judgment,which is similar to the decision-making mechanism when human beings realize more basic self-interest(Shenhav &Greene,2010).We believe that this general mechanism involves not only perceived harm but also cognitive reasoning.The need for harmavoidance is probably the general mechanism of moral judgment.It is a basic need to avoid physical,psychological and social harm,and is the original evolution of human avoidance response(Murray,2008).Based on the research and design of Ryazanov et al.(2018)and Shou and Song(2017),this study uses three experiments to add the judgment design methods of Kortenkamp and Moore(2014),and further explores how perceived probability affects moral judgment by examining the relationship between perceived probability and different judgment types.Experiment 1 set up moral dilemmas with different situation details,and used it to investigate the differences of judgment types and perceived probability in different dilemmas,and the relationship between moral judgment and perceived probability.Experiment 2 sets up moral dilemmas with different situational principles,and uses it to examine the differences between judgment types and perceived probability under different dilemmas,as well as the relationship between moral judgment and perceived probability.In experiment 3,based on experiment 2,we further investigated the mechanism of perceived probability influencing moral judgment,i.e.whether perceived probability generated between different situation principles is confused with perceived harm,and whether it is related to need for harmavoidance.The following conclusions are drawn from the study:(1)Different situational details can lead to different perceived probability,thus affecting moral judgment in moral dilemma.(2)Different situational principles can lead to different perceived probability,thus affecting moral judgment in moral dilemma.(3)Compared with judgment of morality,judgment of appropriateness is more influenced by perceived probability.(4)Perceived probability in moral dilemma can affect moral judgment,because people have a tendency to seek benefits and avoid disadvantages,which is related to the need for harmavoidance.