Analysis Of BMI,Blood Glucose And Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus In Longitudinal Data Of Physical Examination Among Middle-aged And Elderly University Faculty

Objective Based on the longitudinal data of physical examination among middle-aged and elderly universities faculty,the Cox proportional hazards regression model and panel data model were used to analyze the influencing factors of fasting blood glucose and T2DM.Further,the mediating effect analysis model was used to explore how the baseline BMI affects the occurrence of T2DM through affecting fasting blood glucose,providing a theoretical basis for the prevention of type 2diabetes mellitus.Methods A total of 496 individuals were included in the study by screening≥45years of age who were consecutively examined from 2015-2019 to constitute a balanced panel data.Fasting blood glucose values,blood pressure values,lipid values,blood uric acid values,urea values,creatinine values,height,weight,age and other data of the study population were collected.Our study using the Cox proportional hazards regression model and panel data model to analyze the correlation between blood glucose and type 2 diabetes in 438 people without diabetes at baseline.Finally,with the mediation effect,we should evaluate the mediating effect of blood glucose on baseline BMI and T2DM.The statistical analysis of the Cox model,mediation effect model and panel data model and other related information was obtained using SPSS23.0,Stata and Eviews software.Results（1）Among the 496 people included in the analysis,281 were men and 215were women,the 5-year change trend of each physical examination indicators remained basically the same for them.（2）Cox results showed that BMI and systolic blood pressure were the risk factors of type 2 diabetes in 438 people.In the results of panel data model analysis showed that BMI,diastolic blood pressure,HDL,creatinine,systolic blood pressure were correlated with fasting blood glucose.（3）The goodness-of-fit parameters of the panel data model was good,with values of R~2=0.7919,R~2_adj=0.7388 for 438 individuals which proved the validity of the model.（4）BMI in 2015 did not directly affect T2DM in 2019,but indirectly affected the incidence of T2DM through fasting blood glucose in 2017.Conclusion In the 5-year longitudinal physical examination data,BMI,blood pressure,HDL and creatinine have great influence on fasing blood glucose of middle-aged and elderly university faculty.The results showed that obesity did not directly affect the occurrence of T2DM,but indirectly through fasting blood glucose.