Research On Disruptive Technology Identification From The Perspective Of Technological Discontinuity Theory

Objective:By introducing the theory of technological discontinuity into the identification of disruptive technologies,the identification and prediction of disruptive technologies from the perspective of technological discontinuity are explored.This paper sorts out and analyzes the disruptive technology and technology discontinuity theory,and constructs corresponding methods.It provides reference for strengthening the understanding and cognition of disruptive technology,grasping the law of technological innovation,and expanding the identification method of disruptive technology.At the same time,the proposed method is used to research the identification and prediction of disruptive technologies in the field of surgical robots,to provide a reference for the development of high-tech in the medical and health industry and the changing trend of the future pattern of the medical field.Subject and Methods:In this study,literature research method is used to sort out and analyze previous relevant theoretical research,and it is pointed out that technological discontinuity is a significant feature of disruptive technology in the evolution process,and a disruptive technology identification method is constructed according to this principle.Based on the patents in the technology field,the patent database in the technology field is firstly constructed,and the main path of the technology field is identified by citation network analysis and main path analysis,which can be used as the carrier to objectively reflect the technology evolution.Then,two technological discontinuity Metrics A and B based on node and path relationship are used to evaluate the intensity of technological discontinuity of patents and discover the technological discontinuity points in evolution.Finally,combining the current situation and consensus of the field,and based on relevant principles,disruptive technologies and their possible impact are identified.Results:Through the construction of the disruptive technology identification method from the perspective of technological discontinuity,and verified with the patent data in the field of surgical robotics from 1984 to 2020 in the Derwent patent database,after comparing with the current situation and research in the field of surgical robotics,this method successfully identified related technologies such as patents WO9516396-A1,WO200060521-A1,WO2006124390-A2 that have produced subversive effects in this field,and verified the effectiveness.At the same time,based on the identification results and the principles of disruptive technologies,it is also predicted that different mechanical arms from mainstream designs,economical robot designs,and surgical robots combined with artificial intelligence may disrupt the field again in the future.Conclusion:This study proposes to take technological discontinuity as the theoretical basis for the identification of disruptive technologies and proposes a method for identifying disruptive technologies,which realizes the identification of disruptive technologies from the perspective of technological discontinuity.It provides new ideas for the research on disruptive technology identification and enriches the theory and identification methods of disruptive technology.Using the proposed method to conduct empirical research in the field of surgical robotics,the related technologies that have already produced disruptive effects in this field are successfully identified,and the potential disruptive technologies in this field are also predicted.It not only verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method,but also helps to grasp the development trend of high-tech in the medical and health industry and provides a reference for enterprises to seize innovation opportunities in the early stage and formulate technology research and development strategies.