An Early Prediction Model For The Risk Of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

Objective: To establish a prediction model of gestational Diabetes Mellitus(GDM)by combining the basic demographic information of pregnant women and common serological indexes.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted on 1740 single pregnant women who were admitted to our hospital during January 2019 to October 2020.Collect the basic information of the pregnant women,including age,Body Mass Index,at times,times,always with polycystic ovary syndrome,or a strong family history of diabetes and the way of conception,according to the international diabetes and pregnancy group(IADPSG)standard,at 24 to 28 go 75 g Oral Glucose Tolerance Test,for diagnosis of GDM cases,Normal Glucose Tolerance(NGT)was used as the control group.The basic clinical characteristics of patients and common serological indexes of 12-18 w pregnancy were collected to explore the combined predictive effect of them on GDM,and the prediction model of GDM was established.Results :(1)A total of 1262 pregnant women were finally included,including 255 cases in the GDM group and 1007 cases in the non-GDM group.(2)Compared with non-GDM group,GDM group had significantly higher gestational age,pre-pregnancy weight,pre-pregnancy BMI,number of pregnancies,family history of Diabetes(DM),adverse pregnancy history,gestational hypertension,Fasting plasma glucose(FPG)and glycolated albumin Fasting at 12-18 weeks than non-GDM group.Wewer Fasting plasma glucose(Fewer plasma glucose)and Fasting albumin Fasting at 12-18 weeks were significantly higher than Fasting Fasting albumin.(3)Gestational age older than32.5 years,FPG greater than 5.2mmol/L at 12-18 weeks of gestation,family history of diabetes and pre-pregnancy overweight were all independent predictors of GDM.(4)The prediction model was Logit(P)=-14.811+0.228× gestational age +1.016× early pregnancy FPG+ 0.696 x family history(with family history,assigned 1,no assigned0)+ 0.666 x overweight(overweight,assigned 1,normal weight,assigned 0)with a cut point of 1.8.(5)The area under the ROC curve of the prediction model combined with the above indicators was 0.793(95%CI:0.710,0.836),which was larger than the single-factor prediction,with a sensitivity of 0.697 and specificity of 0.738.Conclusions:Ggestational age ≥32.5 years old,overweight before pregnancy,family history of diabetes and FPG≥5.2mmol/ L during 12-18 weeks of gestation are independent risk factors for GDM,and the risk prediction model constructed by these four factors can effectively predict the risk of pregnant women with GDM by quantitative score.