Study On Doctor Scheduling Based On Outpatient Volume Prediction

With the rapid development of public hospital management in our country,chinese government departments invest more and more in medical and health care.How to make the management of outpatient clinic in our country scientific and detailed becomes an important problem that needs to be solved urgently.Outpatient departments are important windows for external services throughout the workflows of public clinics,and patient health and the reputation of the public clinic are directly affected by the level,efficacy and quality of services provided.In our country,when a public hospital is staffed with outpatient doctors,scheduling management often relies on experience to assess the work needs of doctors at all levels,then presents a unified scheduling plan by hand,which combines doctors’ individual work plans closely with the relevant norms of a public hospital.This kind of extensive deployment method requires a large number of personnel and materials.Poor scheduling quality may seriously affect the rational utilization of medical human resources and patient satisfaction.Therefore,in the course of the hospital management,the scheduling of outpatient doctors is very important.At present,the research on doctor scheduling mainly focuses on the overseas medical scene and is not suitable for the domestic clinical environment.Taking a clinic in Jinan as the main research object,this paper studies the short-term weekly schedule of outpatient clinic from two aspects: the forecast of outpatient demand and the modeling of outpatient hours.On the one hand,according to the uncertainty of the daily demand of medical institutions,the model of total out-patient volume combination prediction can be established.First,the outpatient demand forecast can be translated into outpatient volume forecast.Balancing the linear and nonlinear characteristics of outpatient sequence,SARIMA and LSTM outpatient comprehensive prediction models were adopted to make full use of SARIMA model’s excellent modeling ability for linear characteristics and LSTM model’s excellent modeling ability for nonlinear characteristics to change the problem of low accuracy of traditional single prediction.Finally,the comprehensive outpatient volume forecast is translated into the number of physicians required.On the other hand,according to the problem of medical extensive scheduling management,a multi-objective optimal scheduling model for out-patient physicians is set up.First of all,through a systematic analysis of the factors affecting the scheduling of outpatient doctors,the scheduling control factors of outpatient doctors suitable for outpatient treatment are summarized.On this basis,a multi-objective optimization model of outpatient scheduling with minimum operating cost and minimum waiting cost of patients in public hospitals is established.The calculation results show that the model can maintain the normal operation of public hospitals and achieve the optimal total cost.Based on entropy method,the daily outpatient volume prediction model is combined with the objective optimization model of outpatient physician scheduling to form a complete outpatient physician scheduling scheme,which can provide reference for the actual outpatient physician scheduling in hospitals.