| The quality of wheat is mainly affected by varieties,cultivation measures,climate,soil and other environmental factors.Jiangsu Province is the main wheat producing area in China.The ecological type of Jiangsu is complex,and the type of soil and climate changes greatly from north to south,resulting in significant differences in the yield and quality of wheat in each ecological area.Therefore,exploring the regional distribution of wheat quality in Jiangsu Province and its influencing factors can provide reference for Wheat Quality Regionalization in Jiangsu Province.In this study,the grain samples collected from large-scale farmers in Wheat Production Counties（regions）of Jiangsu Province in 2018 and 2019 were used to analyze the quality indicators and explore the quality changes of main wheat varieties and cultivated varieties in different regions.On this basis,ArcGIS was used to construct wheat grain quality in different ecological environments in Jiangsu Province.Decision tree,random forest algorithm and meta analysis were used to study the influence of meteorological factors and Cultivation Measures on regional distribution of wheat quality.The main results are as follows:1.Taking the main wheat varieties extracted from the main producing counties of Jiangsu Province in 2018-2019 as the test materials,the analysis of their quality results found that:in 2018,the grain protein content of Jiangsu wheat was 10.57-18.09%,the average value was 14.64%,and the wet gluten content was 17.19-37.48%,the average value is 30.92%,the dough stability time ranged from 1.4-31.6 min,the average value is 7.20 min,the water absorption was 48.9-65.8 ml,and the average value is 58.16ml.In 2019,Jiangsu wheat grain protein content ranged from 10.20-17.49%,with an average value of 13.66%,wet gluten content ranged from 18.49-36.50%,with an average value of 29.24%,and dough stability time ranged from 1-22.2 min,with an average value of 6.2 min.The variation of water absorption is 51.5-72.2 ml,with an average value of 60.5 ml.In 2018,weak gluten wheat accounted for 2.59%,medium gluten wheat accounted for 33.16%,medium strong wheat accounted for 18.13%,strong gluten wheat accounted for 9.32%.In 2019,weak gluten wheat accounted for 3.38%,medium gluten wheat accounted for 23.31%,medium strong gluten wheat accounted for 11.15%,strong gluten wheat accounted for 6.42%.The two-year samples were mainly medium-gluten wheat,weak-gluten wheat was mainly distributed in southern Jiangsu,medium-gluten wheat was widely distributed in the province,and medium-strong gluten and strong gluten wheat were distributed in central and northern Jiangsu.The quality stability of the most varieties is low.Among the varieties with a sampling number of ≥5 in two years,almost all of them meet the standard samples of medium-gluten and medium-gluten wheat,some of them meet the weak gluten wheat standard.Therefore,the development of good quality wheat requires the selection of suitable varieties according to local conditions in Jiangsu.2.Under the usual cultivation measures,10%of wheat samples with grain protein content<12.5%and 67.14%of wheat samples with grain protein content≥14%in 2018,while 29.71%of wheat samples with grain protein content<12.5%and 34.12%of wheat samples with grain protein content≥14%in 2019.With application of random forest algorithm and Meta-analysis,we found that the GPC of wheat growing in the southeastern part along sea and lakes of Jiangsu is most likely to meet the standard of soft wheat,followed by the northwestern part along river and the eastern coastal area in Jiangsu.And when the plantation is 20-30 km away from the primary river and lake,the probability of reaching the weak gluten wheat standard is relatively high,which is 23.95%.Meanwhile,the GPC of wheat growing in the central part of Jiangsu is most likely to meet the standard of soft wheat,followed by the northwest coastal region of Jiangsu.The probability of achieving the strong gluten wheat standard at the plantation 0-10 km or 40-60 km away from a lake or river is relatively high.In terms of meteorological factors,precipitation has the greatest influence on the formation of weak gluten wheat in Jiangsu during the early growth stage,especially at emergence stage and joining stage.The impact of accumulated temperature is more important during the later stage of growth stage,especially at grain filling stage and flowering stage.In addition,the sunshine hours at emergence stage and jointing stage and precipitation at flowering stage are also more important for the formation of weak gluten wheat in Jiangsu.Among them,the precipitation at emergence stage was positively correlated with the possibility of wheat GPC reaching the t standard of weak gluten wheat in Jiangsu.The sunshine hours during emergence stage,the precipitation and the sunshine hours during jointing stage,and the accumulated temperature during filling stage were opposite.For strong gluten wheat,precipitation at emergence stage,accumulated temperature before anthesis,sunshine hours at flowering stage and early grain filling stage,accumulated temperature at grain later filling stage are more important.And the precipitation and accumulated temperature at flowering stage are also very important.Among them,the probability of GPC meeting the standard of strong gluten wheat in Jiangsu Province was negatively correlated with the accumulated temperature before anthesis and the sunshine hours in the early stage of grain filling,and positively correlated with the accumulated temperature in the late stage of grain filling and the sunshine hours in the flowering stage.Thus,geographic location（distribution of river systems,etc.）and climate should be considered when zoning the suitable planting areas for different quality types of wheat.3.Based on the cultivation information and protein quality test results of wheat sampling survey of Jiangsu Province in 2018 and 2019,cart decision tree was used to build a model to predict the corresponding cultivation measures of weak gluten,and strong gluten wheat.Referring to GB/T 17320-2013 "classification of wheat variety quality",we found that in Jiangsu Province,we found that in Jiangsu Province,When latitude<33°,11 kg/ha≤total phosphorus fertilizer<107 kg/ha,wheat grain protein character type is more likely to be weak gluten;when latitude≥33°,sowing time is between October 5th and October 31st,proportion of basal nitrogen fertilizer>46%,wheat grain protein character type is more likely to be weak gluten type.When latitude≥33°and sowing time is between November 5th and December 8th,the proportion of basal nitrogen fertilizer<55%,wheat grain protein character type is more likely to be strong gluten type.When latitude≥33°,sowing time is between October 5th and November 5th,227 kg/ha≤total nitrogen fertilizer≤349 kg/ha,proportion of basal nitrogen fertilizer<33%,wheat grain protein character type is more likely to be strong gluten type. |
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