| Temperature directly affects the life activities of variable temperature animals,especially the growth,reproduction and survival of insects.The influence of climate warming on insects,which is characterized by temperature rise,has attracted more and more attention at home and abroad.Aphid,as a worldwide agricultural pest,has a low starting point of development and a short generation cycle,which is an important indicator of climate warming.In this study,by analyzing the main characteristics of climate warming,the increase of average temperature,frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature,and the increase of the lowest temperature at night,different temperature modes were set up respectively,simulating the effect of climate warming on Chromaphis juglandicola.The basic relationship between population dynamics and temperature was obtained by indoor constant temperature experiment data.Combined with the field population dynamics and meteorological data,the population dynamics prediction model based of C.juglandicola on temperature was established.The main conclusions are as follows:1.In this study,the differences of life parameters such as growth and development,life span and reproduction of C.juglandicola under different constant temperature modes were clarified.With the increase of temperature,the development period of C.juglandicola is shortened,but when the temperature is increased to 35℃,the aphid can’t develop normally;the development starting point temperature of C.juglandicola is 4.00℃,and the effective accumulated temperature is 227.27;the life span,yield,net population growth rate and intrinsic growth rate of the aphid increase first and then decrease with the increase of temperature,and the life span of the aphid is 20℃.The reproduction,net reproductive rate and intrinsic rate of C.juglandicola increase reached the maximum at 25℃.the optimum temperature is 25℃.The results provide important basic parameters and scientific basis for the population prediction of C.juglandicola.2.The influence of different intensity of high temperature on the life parameters of C.juglandicola were studied.The development duration of C.juglandicola was significantly shortened with the increase of high temperature intensity.The survival rate of C.juglandicola decreased with the increase of high temperature intensity.The nymphal could not develop normally,when the highest temperature rose to 39℃.The longevity of adult aphid decreased with the increase of high temperature intensity,reproduction decreased with the increase of high temperature intensity,the net reproductive rate and the intrinsic rate of increase decreased with the increase of high temperature intensity,and the generation time increased with the increase of high temperature intensity.It indicated that the growth and population growth of C.juglandicola were significantly inhibited by the increase of high temperature intensity.3.The influence of different frequency of high temperature on the life parameters of C.juglandicola were studied.The development duration of nymphal is prolonged with the increase of high temperature frequency,and the survival rate of the nymphal is decreased with the increase of high temperature frequency.If nymphal cannot develop into adult aphids at 37℃/d.With the increase of high temperature frequency,the reproduction of C.juglandicola decreased,the longevity shortened significantly,and the intrinsic rate of increase decreased significantly.The effect of constant temperature and variable temperature on C.juglandicola is significantly different.The maximum intrinsic growth rate of C.juglandicola is 0.347 at constant temperature of 25℃.4.In this study,it was determined whether there were differences in the effects of the lowest temperature rise at night on the growth and development,the longevity,reproduction and other life parameters of C.juglandicola,and the biological effects of the asymmetric temperature change in the day and night.With the increase of the lowest temperature at night,the development duration of the nymphal first shortened and then extended.At the lowest temperature of 15.4℃ at night,the development duration was the shortest,10.25 days.The survival rate of the nymphal was the highest at 15.4℃.With the increase of the lowest temperature at night,the longevity,reproductive capacity and intrinsic growth rate of the nymphal first increased and then decreased.At the lowest temperature of 15.4℃ at night,the longevity,reproduction and the intrinsic rate of increase of the aphid reached the maximum,which were 15.74 d,53.08 and 0.384 respectively.Increasing the lowest temperature at night in an appropriate range is beneficial to the development,survival,the longevity,aphid production,and population development of C.juglandicola,but it is not good to increase the lowest temperature at night and increase too much.5.The basic relationship between population dynamics and temperature was obtained based on the internal constant temperature experiment data.Using field population dynamics and meteorological monitoring data,a temperature-based C.juglandicola group dynamic model was established,and a revised recursive model was obtained to obtain the C.juglandicola short-term forecasting mathematical model:NT+1(Predictive value)=4.3393+0.6283NTermT,It provides an important basis for C.juglandicola population dynamics and trend prediction. |
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